Market Information Tuesday 18 August 2020

The impact of the corona crisis on the Dutch economy is slightly less than previously estimated. According to the forecast of the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), the economy will grow again from the third quarter onwards, which implies that the contraction for 2020 as a whole will probably be limited to 5.1% compared to the 6.4% forecasted in June. Next year, it is expected to grow by 3.2%. Unemployment is likely to increase to 6.5%. CPB has also worked out a scenario in which a second lockdown proves necessary. In that case, the CPB expects a contraction of 6.2% this year and a contraction of 3.2% in 2021.

The Japanese economy shrank by 7.8% in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter of 2020. This is reflected in the preliminary GDP data published by the Japanese government. According to analysts, this is the biggest contraction for Japan since the Second World War. It marks the third consecutive quarter of contraction for Japan. Japan’s economic downturn is slightly larger than expected, but still less severe than in many other countries. This is because the Asian country has not taken too restrictive measures against the coronavirus.

The Nasdaq stock exchange set a new record in New York on Monday. The broad-based S&P 500 remained just off a new record, while the Dow-Jones index showed a loss. The Nasdaq increased by 1% to 11,129.73, the S&P 500 increased by 0.3% to 3381.99 points and the Dow-Jones index decreased by 0.3% to 27,844.91 points.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.43% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to -0.19% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.