Market Information Thursday 9 April 2020

According to five German research institutes, the German economy will enter a deep recession this year due to the corona crisis but is well equipped to recover next year. The institutes expect a contraction of 4.2% for this 2020, which would be the strongest recession since the financial crisis. It should be noted however that if the pandemic lasts longer, the contraction is likely to be even stronger. However, growth may return to 5.8% in 2021, due to extensive support measures announced by the German government. According to the institutes, the German government is well equipped to obtain sufficient funds to provide this support. The German finance minister expects the German economy to contract with more than 5% in 2020.

The French central bank has announced in an initial estimate that the French economy contracted with 6.0% in the first quarter of 2020. This is the strongest downfall since World War II. According to the Banque de France, economic activity has fallen by approximately a third since the lockdown in France. For example, the French industry currently only uses about 56% of the total capacity.

The Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) reported that the average daily production of Dutch industry in February 2020 was 1.3% lower than in February 2019. Production decreased for six of the eight business classes. The production of rubber and plastic, among others, fell sharply by 8.4% year-on-year. Production in the machine industry showed strong growth at 7.9% year-on-year. Industrial production decreased by 1.7% in February 2020 compared to the previous month.

The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.05% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.