Market Information Thursday 7 May 2020

The European Commission has published new economic growth estimates for 2020 and 2021. This shows that the economy of the 19 euro countries will contract by an average of 7.7% in 2020, while unemployment will rise to 9.6%. However, the European Commission expects European economies to recover in 2021, with an average growth of 6.3%. For the Netherlands, the European Commission expects a contraction of 6.8% in 2020, and a growth of 5.0% in 2021.

According to payroll processor ADP, employment in the United States fell sharply in April 2020. Many companies have closed their doors due to the corona crisis. The number of jobs shrank with 20.2 million in April. This is the biggest drop ever; the previous record was a decrease of 835,000 during the financial crisis in 2009. Approximately 80% of lost jobs derive from the services sector. The US government will publish its monthly jobs report this Friday. This report will also include figures of the American public sector.

China’s exports increased by 3.5% in April 2020 compared to April 2019. The rebound of exports was unexpected; economists expected a sharp decline. The growth was mainly driven by higher exports to countries in Southeast Asia. However, economists believe that the upturn is temporary and that the consequences of the corona crisis will lead to declining exports from China later this year.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.17% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to -0.11% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.