Market Information Monday 4 July 2022

It’s going to be a busy week on the macroeconomic front. The German trade balance is presented today. France will give insight into its industrial production on Tuesday. The US Federal Reserve will release its minutes from its latest policy meeting on Wednesday to discuss the 0.75 percent rate hike. The United States will present information on its exports and imports in May on Thursday. The European Central Bank will put the minutes online on Thursday. Germany will publish figures on industrial production on Thursday and the Netherlands on Friday. The monthly jobs report from the government will also be published by the United States on Friday.

Global oil prices could soar to about $380 a barrel if the United States and Europe impose sanctions on Russia that would cut production. The most obvious risk with a price cap is that Russia chooses to respond by cutting exports. Moscow is benefiting from the shortage in the global oil market. For much of the rest of the world, this could have major negative consequences. A 3 million barrels reduction in daily production would push the price of crude oil to $190.

With central banks raising interest rates to curb inflation, buyers in congested housing markets could be squeezed. This could cause the housing bubble to burst. With all the consequences for the economy. The housing markets in New Zealand, the Czech Republic, Australia, and Canada are considered the biggest bubbles and the most vulnerable to a fall in prices. Falling house prices could affect household wealth, undermine consumer confidence, and could put a brake on new construction projects.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 0.26% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 10 basis points to 2.07% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.