The German business climate improved in March. This was revealed Monday by figures published by the Ifo research institute. The Ifo index for German business climate for industry and trade rose to 93.3 this month from 91.1 in February. An index of 90.9 had been expected in advance by economists.
China spent $240 billion between 2008 and 2021 to bail out 22 developing countries. This is revealed in a study by researchers from the World Bank, Harvard Kennedy School, AidData and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, which was published on Tuesday. China has lent hundreds of billions of dollars to build infrastructure in developing countries, but lending is declining since 2016 as many projects have failed to pay the expected financial dividends. Chinese loans to countries in debt distress rose from less than 5% of its overseas loan portfolio in 2010 to 60% in 2022, the study said.
Lending growth in the European Union has slowed down sharply in recent months following the ECB’s tightening interest rate policy. The index that data provider Bloomberg tracks for Eurozone funding conditions deteriorated to level since late 2011 last week. The latest Bank Lending Surveys, the ECB surveys of about 150 banks, show that eurozone banks’ lending requirements have risen to levels not seen since early 2012.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.28% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 7 basis points to 2.94% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Dutch economy grew by 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter. This emerged from a second estimate by the Statistics Netherlands on Friday. The growth follows a stagnation in the third quarter. Initially, a contraction of 0.2 percent was reported for the third quarter. Compared to a year earlier, gross domestic product grew by 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter. According to the first calculation, that was 3.0 percent.
The funding requirement of the Dutch State will be slightly reduced next year. This emerged on Friday from the outlook for 2023 of DSTA, the agency of the Ministry of Finance. The Netherlands has an estimated financing need of 99.7 billion euros for 2023, compared to more than 101 billion euros by mid-December. Of this, 31.6 billion still has to be raised on the capital markets and 3/4.5 billion on the money markets.
The US economy grew significantly faster in March. This was revealed on Friday by provisional figures from S&P Global. The purchasing managers’ index for the services sector was 53.8 in March, compared to 50.6 in February. That is the highest level in 11 months. Economists had forecasted an index of 50.3.
The 6M Euribor increased with 8 basis points to 3.29% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.87% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Swiss central bank has raised interest rates by 50 basis points, as announced by the SNB yesterday. The SNB raised interest rates from 1.00% to 1.50% to counter new inflationary pressures. The increase is in line with market expectations. Switzerland’s inflation rate stood at 3.4% in February, after prices started to rise again at the beginning of the year. Inflation is now expected to be 2.6% this year, and 2.0% in 2024 and 2025. In December, the central bank reckoned on 2.4% inflation for 2023 and 1.8% for 2024.
The number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the United States fell slightly in the week ending March 18. This was revealed by US Department of Labour figures on Thursday. The number of new applications for unemployment benefits fell from 192,000 to 191,000. Economists’ expectations were at 198,000 new applications. The four-week moving average was 196,250 applications. That is 250 less than a week earlier. The number of extended support applications in the week ending March 11 stood at 1.694 million applications, 14,000 more than a week earlier.
The Bank of England (BoE) raised interest rates for the 11th time in a row on Thursday, but said a surprise resurgence in inflation would probably fade fast, prompting speculation it has ended its run of hikes. The BoE sounded more upbeat about the outlook for Britain’s economy but noted the risks posed by turmoil among global banks. The BoE’s nine decision makers voted 7-2 in favour of a 25 basis-point increase in the Bank Rate to 4.25%. This rate rise extends a run of increases that began in December 2021, although it was the Monetary Policy Committee’s smallest increase since June.
The 6M Euribor increased with 14 basis points to 3.21% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 9 basis points to 2.90% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil prices fell on Thursday following three sessions of gains. Brent crude futures fell 66 cents, or 0.9%, to $76.03, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) dropped 74 cents, or 1.0%, to $70.16.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the ninth time in a row on Wednesday, opting to continue its campaign against high inflation despite stress in the banking industry following the collapse of two regional banks. The Fed on Wednesday announced a 25 basis point rate hike, to a range of 4.75% to 5%. That is the highest level since the eve of the credit crisis in 2007.
UK inflation unexpectedly rose to 10.4% in February. Economists had counted on inflation slowly returning to more normal levels after peaking at 11.1% in October, not taking into account a record 18% rise in food prices. That is according to data published by the UK statistics office ONS on Wednesday. Economists on average assumed inflation of 9.9% in February, up from 10.1% in January.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 3.07% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.99% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Dutch consumers were less pessimistic in March than in February, according to Statistics Netherlands (CBS). The confidence index rose from -44 in February to -39 this month. Consumers were less pessimistic about the economy and the willingness to buy was also less negative. Confidence is still low, according to CBS. At -39, consumer confidence in March was below the 20-year average of -10.
Existing home sales in the United States rose sharply in February. This was revealed Tuesday by figures from real estate agency NAR. On a monthly basis, sales increased by 14.5% to 4.58 million homes. Economists had forecast 4.20 million homes. It was the first increase in more than a year. The median sales price fell slightly, to $363,000. That was the first decline in more than a decade.
Investment in property, plant and equipment in the Netherlands increased in January, according to Statistics Netherlands in a report published today. The volume of investment rose with 9.3% year-over-year in January, following a 1.9% decline in December.
The 6M Euribor increased with 4 basis points to 3.10% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 8 basis points to 2.95% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is ready to take a break from raising interest rates to take more time to assess the Australian economy, according to the minutes taken at the central bank’s most recent monetary meeting earlier this month.
The euro reacted cautiously on Monday to Credit Suisse’s emergency merger with UBS, following a reassuring report from the European banking regulator EBA. The euro went higher into the weekend and started the week a bit lower, but the movement was actually limited, given the major intervention in the banking sector.
The turmoil in the banking sector is rapidly spreading to commodity markets. For example, the price of crude oil fell to the levels seen in late 2021. Other commodities fell as well. On the contrary, gold prices are rising and are valued more than $2,000 per troy ounce barrier.
The 6M Euribor increased with 7 basis points to 3.06% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.87% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Six major central banks have made joint arrangements to provide US dollar liquidity to global financial markets amid the turmoil following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank earlier this month and the bailout of Credit Suisse over the weekend . The central banks announced this on Sunday. Starting today, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank are offering additional dollar liquidity through their existing swap line arrangements. Instead of weekly trades on the seven-day maturity swap lines, the transactions will now be conducted daily, and at least until the end of April.
Labor costs in the eurozone rose faster in the fourth quarter. This was revealed on Friday by figures from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Labor costs rose by 5.7 percent on an annual basis in the eurozone in the last three months of 2022. Labor costs rose by 3.7 percent in the third quarter. Wages also rose faster in the fourth quarter, by 5.1 percent on an annual basis. In the third quarter, wages in the eurozone rose by 3.0 percent.
US consumer confidence in the economy fell in March. This emerged from preliminary figures from the University of Michigan on Friday. The consumer confidence index deteriorated from 67.0 in February to 63.4 in the middle of March. It was the first drop in four months. Respondents were also more negative about the current state of the economy. The sub-index fell from 70.7 to 66.4. The expectation index also fell, from 64.7 to 61.5.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 14 basis points to 2.99% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 10 basis points to 2.88% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil prices rebounded by about 1% on Friday. Brent crude futures rose by 81 cents to $75.51 a barrel, having snapped three days of losses to settle 1.4% higher on Thursday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 78 cents to $69.13 a barrel, after closing 1.1% higher in the previous session.
The European Central Bank raised interest rates as expected by 50 basis points on Thursday, sticking with its fight against inflation and facing down calls by some investors to hold back on policy tightening until turmoil in the banking sector eases.
Major US banks are putting $30bn into regional bank First Republic Bank. This was reported by the US Treasury and the Fed, among others, in a joint statement on Thursday evening. The banks are making this significant injection of capital after there was considerable unease among investors over the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the Swiss central bank’s billion-dollar bailout to prop up Credit Suisse.
The 6M Euribor increased with 9 basis points to 3.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.98% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Chinese industrial output rose more than in the first two months of this year than in December, but is still slightly disappointing. This was revealed by government figures on Wednesday. Output rose 2.4% year-on-year. Economists had expected an increase of 2.8%. This was higher than in December, when output rose 1.3%. On a monthly basis, February saw a 0.12% rise in output, after a 0.06% rise in December.
Producer prices in the United States fell slightly in February. This was reported by the US Department of Labour on Wednesday. Producer prices fell 0.1% on a monthly basis, after rising 0.3% in January. Earlier, the January increase was 0.7%. Energy prices declined with 0.2% last month. Economists had forecast a 0.3% rise in prices for February. Excluding volatile prices of trade services, food and energy, US producer prices rose 0.2% in February. In January, these core prices already rose 0.5%. Expectations were for a 0.4% rise. On an annualised basis, producer prices rose 4.6% in February and core prices 4.4%. In January, these were 5.7 and 4.4% respectively.
Eurozone manufacturing output increased in January. This was revealed by Eurostat figures on Wednesday. Output rose 0.7% in January compared to December. On a year-on-year basis, output in the eurozone rose 0.9% in January. Economists consulted expected a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and on an annual basis an increase of 0.6%.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 34 basis points to 3.04% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 10 basis points to 2.94% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil prices fell sharply at the end of the trading day on Tuesday. An April futures for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed 4.8% lower at $71.22 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The sell-off was partly caused by a limited recovery of the dollar on Tuesday, after a decline on Monday due to concerns about a banking crisis.
Consumer prices in the United States slightly rose in February. This was revealed on Tuesday by figures from the US Department of Labor. Consumer prices rose 0.4% on a monthly basis last month, following a 0.5% increase in January. On an annual basis, prices rose 6.0% compared to 6.4% in January.
Consumer prices in the Netherlands rose faster in February than in January. This was revealed Tuesday by figures from the Central Bureau of Statistics. Last month, the price level rose 8.0% year-on-year, following increases of 7.6% in January and 9.6% in December. In September, inflation peaked at 14.5%.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 7 basis points to 3.38% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 8 basis points to 3.04% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil prices fell more than $1 on Tuesday, extending yesterday’s slide. Brent crude futures were down 87 cents, or 1.1%, at $79.90. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) dropped 85 cents, or 1.1%, to $73.93 a barrel. On Monday, Brent fell to its lowest since early January, while WTI dropped to its lowest since December.
India’s annual wholesale price-based inflation (WPI) eased to the lowest in over two years, dragged down by a fall in overall input costs for manufacturers on the back of favourable commodity prices. WPI in February eased to 3.85% year-on-year, compared with 4.73% in the previous month.
UK unemployment remained flat in the three months to January. This was revealed on Tuesday by figures from the UK statistics office ONS. In the period under review, seasonally adjusted unemployment stood at 3.7 per cent, the same as a quarter earlier, but also 0.3 percentage points below the level before the corona pandemic outbreak.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.45% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 11 basis points to 2.96% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil prices ticked up in Monday’s Asian trade, reversing a weak start as a recovery in Chinese demand and a weaker dollar provided support to a market rattled by the prospect possible further U.S. interest rate increases. After initially slipping in early trading, Brent crude futures were up 25 cents, or 0.30%, to $83.03 per barrel by 0700 GMT. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) ticked up by 23 cents, or 0.30%, to $76.91 a barrel.
Turkey’s current account deficit widened to $9.85 billion in January, data from the central bank showed on Monday, the highest level in four decades of available data, driven by a soaring energy bill and gold imports. It was the highest monthly deficit since 1984, the first year for which such data is available, according to central bank records. Before that time Turkey did not have an economy large enough to generate such a deficit, data shows.
The U.S. government posted a $262 billion budget deficit in February, up 21% from a year earlier, as expenditures grew and revenues fell, due largely to higher tax refunds issued as the Internal Revenue Service worked through a substantial backlog of unprocessed returns. The Treasury Department said on Friday the deficit last month compared to a $217 billion budget gap in February 2022.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.46% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 12 basis points to 3.07% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the United States rose more than expected in the week ending on March 4. This was revealed by US Department of Labour figures on Thursday. The number of new applications for unemployment benefits rose from 190,000 to 211,000. Economists’ expectation was for 195,000 new applications. The four-week moving average was 197,000 application, 4,000 more than a week earlier. The number of extended support applications in the week ending on February 25 stood at 1.718 million applications, 69,000 more than a week earlier.
Inflation in China hit a one-year low in February. This was revealed by figures from China’s statistics bureau on Thursday. On a year-on-year basis, prices rose 1.0% after a 2.1% plus in January and 1.8% in December. The price rise in February came in well below economists’ expectations. Those had expected inflation of 1.7%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.5% in February after rising 0.8% in January.
The Japanese economy grew at a significantly slower pace in the fourth quarter of last year. Final figures from the Japanese government showed this on Thursday. On a quarterly basis, growth was 0.1% instead of an initially estimated 0.6%. The third quarter saw a contraction of 0.3%.
The 6M Euribor increased with 3 basis points to 3.45% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 3.19% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil prices traded lower on Wednesday, extending losses after U.S. government data pointed to weak demand, which exacerbated fears that more aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes would pressure economic growth. Brent crude futures were down $1.07 cents, or 1.3%, to $82.28 per barrel . U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped to $1.19, or 1.5%, to $76.37 a barrel.
The Bank of Canada on Wednesday left its key overnight rate on hold at 4.50%, becoming the first major central bank to suspend its monetary tightening campaign in the face of an anticipated easing of high inflation. Over the past year, the Canadian central bank raised rates eight times in a row by a total of 425 basis points to tame inflation, which peaked at an annualized rate of 8.1% last year.
U.S. private payrolls increased more than expected in February, pointing to continued labor market strength. Private employment increased by 242,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment report showed on Wednesday. Data for January was revised higher to show 119,000 jobs added instead of 106,000 as previously reported.
The 6M Euribor increased with 6 basis points to 3.42% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 3.20% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Dutch households spent more in January than in January 2022. This was revealed on Wednesday by figures reported by Statistics Netherlands. Households spent 6.2% more in the first month of this year than in January 2022. In December, the year-on-year increase was still 9.9%. In January 2022, non-essential stores and the service sector were still struggling with severe covid measures.
The U.S. central bank may raise interest rates at a faster pace to reduce inflation, according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. At a Senate hearing Powell referred to data from January that shows that inflation in the U.S. is no longer decreasing. Last month, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4.50% to 4.75%.
Oil prices fell 3.6% Tuesday in response to weak import figures from China and the prospect of more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. It was the steepest drop in two months. The April futures for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $77.58 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.36% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 3.23% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Robert Holzmann, chairman of Austria’s central bank and member of the European Central Bank’s Executive Board, called for four more interest rate hikes of 50 basis points. This was reported on Monday by Germany’s Handelsblatt after an interview with Holzmann.
China exported less in the first two months of this year, according to Chinese government figures published today. In dollar terms, exports declined 6.8 percent year-on-year in January and February. The decline was smaller than the 9.0 percent drop expected by the market. In December, exports declined with 9.9 percent.
Retail sales in the eurozone rose slightly in January. This was revealed yesterday by figures from the European statistics office Eurostat. Retail sales, measured by volume, rose 0.3 percent on a monthly basis in January.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 3.35% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 3.28% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
China is targeting economic growth of about 5 percent this year, the lowest level in more than a quarter of a century. Prime minister Li Keqiang announced this on Sunday at the opening of the parliamentary year. The intended growth is lower than the target of 5.5 percent that Beijing aspired to in 2022. Ultimately, the Chinese economy grew by 3 percent last year. The lower growth target for 2023 comes despite signs of a solid economic recovery in the first two months of the year after the lifting of the strict corona measures.
Eurozone producer prices fell in January. This was revealed on Friday by figures from Eurostat, the European statistical office. On a monthly basis, producer prices fell by 2.8 percent, after an increase of 1.1 percent in December. On an annual basis, producer prices rose by 15.0 percent in January. In December this was still 24.5 percent and in November 27.0 percent.
The US services sector grew again in February. This was revealed on Friday by figures from S&P Global. The purchasing managers’ index for the services sector rose from 46.8 in January to 50.6 in February. In the provisional measurement, the index figure was still 50.5. Earlier this week it appeared that activity in the US manufacturing industry contracted less sharply in February than in the previous month. The index increased from 46.9 in January to 47.3 in February.
The 6M Euribor increased with 6 basis points to 3.37% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 3.28% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Eurozone inflation decreased in February, but less than expected. This was revealed by Eurostat figures on Thursday. Prices rose 8.5% year-on-year last month versus 8.6% in January and 9.2% in December. Economists had expected a decrease to 8.2%. Core inflation, a key gauge for the ECB, was 5.6% year-on-year in February, up from 5.3% a month earlier. In December, core inflation stood at 5.2%. On a monthly basis, consumer and core prices each rose 0.8%.
The number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the United States decreased slightly in the week ending 25 February. This was revealed by US Department of Labour figures on Thursday. The number of new applications for unemployment benefits fell from 192,000 to 190,000. Economists’ expectation was for 195,000 new applications. The number of extended support applications in the week ending 18 February came to 1.655 million, 5,000 fewer than a week earlier.
Consumer prices in the Netherlands rebounded more strongly in February on a year-on-year basis than in January. This was revealed on Thursday in a quick estimate by Statistics Netherlands. Last month, the price level rose 8.0% year-on-year, following a 7.6% inflation in January. In December last year, the year-on-year price level rose 9.6%.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 3.31% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 3.33% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Consumer prices in Germany rose faster than expected in February. This was revealed on Wednesday by preliminary figures from German statistics agency Destatis. On a year-on-year basis, prices rose 8.7% in February, following a rise of also 8.7% in January. In February, prices rose 0.8% compared to January. Economists’ expectations were for an annualised price rise of 8.5% and a monthly increase of 0.6%.
Eurozone manufacturing declined slightly more in February. This was revealed by final figures from S&P Global on Wednesday. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 48.5 in February from 48.8 in January. The preliminary index also stood at 48.5. The output purchasing managers’ index did rise, from 48.9 to 50.1, the highest reading in 9 months.
The price of a barrel of crude oil closed higher on Wednesday, although the latest data from the US energy agency EIA showed that US crude oil inventories rose last week. The data showed that US crude oil inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels to 480.2 million in the week ending on February 24. April futures for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed 0.8% (USD 0.64) higher at USD 77.69 on Wednesday.
The 6M Euribor increased with 5 basis points to 3.29% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 3.29% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
US consumer confidence in the economy fell in February. This was revealed on Tuesday by figures from The Conference Board. The consumer confidence index fell to 102.9 this month from a revised 106.0 in January.
House prices in the largest urban regions of the United States fell again in December on a monthly basis and rose less sharply on an annual basis than in the previous month. This was revealed by Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller figures on Tuesday. House prices in the 10 largest regions fell 0.8% on a monthly basis in December. On a year-on-year basis, prices rose 4.4%. However, this was still 6.3% in November and 8.0% in October.
The European Central Bank has no reason to refrain from raising interest rates by 50 basis points at the upcoming interest rate meeting, according to ECB chief economist Philip Lane, speaking to Reuters. The economist acknowledges that inflation is now cautiously moving in the right direction. But, Lane stressed, the ECB will not stop raising interest rates until it is confident that inflation is falling towards the desired 2%. Since July, the ECB has already raised interest rates by 3 percentage points. And so for March, another 50 basis points looks set to be added.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 3.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 3.23% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
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