The member states of the European Union came to an agreement on Monday to ban almost all imports of Russian oil. The president of the European Council, Charles Michel, announced that the ban will immediately stop two-thirds of all oil imports from Russia and that by the end of the year the import of Russian oil will be reduced by 90%. The remaining 10% of imports are temporarily exempted from the agreement because countries such as Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic are currently too dependent on supplies from Russia which cannot easily be replaced. In addition, the Member States have reached an agreement to disconnect Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, from the SWIFT payment system and Russian broadcasters are no longer allowed to broadcast in the EU.
The Dutch retail sector recorded higher turnover in April, according to figures published today by Statistics Netherlands. Turnover increased by 8.1% year-on-year, while sales volumes rose by 1.8%. For non-food retail, turnover increased by 21.1% and sales volumes by 14.9%. This growth is mainly explained by the lockdown that the Netherlands experienced a year earlier, which particularly affected the non-food sector.
The provisional figures of the German statistical office Destatis show that consumer prices in Germany increased even more in May. In April, inflation was still 7.4% but rose to 7.9% in May instead of the expected 7.5%. Food prices rose by 11% and energy prices increased by more than 38%.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to -0.08% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 1.78% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
This week inflation figures will be published. This afternoon the (provisional) inflation rate of the Netherlands will be published and on Tuesday the inflation figures of France and the Eurozone will be announced. Furthermore, on Wednesday the unemployment figures of the Eurozone will be published. A day later OPEC will meet and figures will be published on oil stocks in the United States (US). Finally, on Friday, the trade deficit of Germany and the job growth and unemployment rate in the U.S. will be reported.
Output prices of the Dutch manufacturing industry rose sharply in April this year. This was reported by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) this morning. On an annual basis, prices have increased by an average of 29%. This is the largest increase since the beginning of this measurement in 1981. The unprecedented increase is mainly due to increased costs for energy and transportation. In March, the year-on-year increase was already 26%. On a monthly basis, prices rose 4.1% in April 2022.
The confidence of Dutch manufacturers in the industrial sector fell slightly in May 2022. The confidence index went from 10.8 in April to 9.9 in May. This is evident from figures released by CBS this morning. The average score over the past 20 years is 1.0. In April 2020, manufacturer confidence reached a low point with a score of -28.7. After that, confidence steadily climbed again and has remained relatively stable around 11.0 since June 2021.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.06% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 1.73% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Yesterday, Austria raised EUR 4 billion with a green bond debt sale. The bond, due to mature on May 23, 2049, priced for a yield of 1.876%, and Austria’s Treasury retained EUR 250 million of the issuance, it said. Following the issuance, Austria plans to raise another EUR 1 billion this year from issuing short-term green debt. Austria will be the first government to include short-term debt instruments in its green debt programme.
India has imposed restrictions on sugar exports for the first time in six years by capping this season’s exports at 10 million tonnes, a government order said, to prevent a surge in domestic prices after mills sold a record volume on the world market. The government has also asked exporters to seek its permission for any overseas shipments between June 1 and October 31, the order said. India is the world’s biggest sugar producer and the second biggest exporter behind Brazil.
Sri Lanka will present an interim budget and a two-year economic recovery plan within six weeks to get the country out of a deep economic crisis. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said Tuesday that he fears inflation could rise to as high as 40% if subsidies on fuels disappear and the central bank has to print more money. According to the prime minister, about a trillion extra rupees are needed.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.09% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 1.68% compared to previous business day.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to apply negative interest rates at the end of the third quarter. ECB President Christine Lagarde wrote this on Monday in a blog on the central bank’s website. Lagarde reiterated that she expects bond purchases under the APP program to be stopped “very early” in the third quarter. “This would allow us to raise interest rates at our July meeting, in line with our forward guidance. Based on the current outlook, we are likely to be able to get out of negative interest rates by the end of the third quarter,” Lagarde said. If it then becomes clear that inflation is stabilizing at 2 percent over the medium term, a gradual further normalization of interest rates towards neutral rates is appropriate, she believes. Lagarde warns that the extent and pace of normalization cannot be determined in advance.
Existing owner-occupied homes in the Netherlands have also become considerably more expensive on an annual basis in April. This was reported Monday by Statistics Netherlands and the Land Registry. Houses were 19.7% more expensive in April than a year earlier. One month earlier, the increase was 19.5%, while in February the increase was 20.2% and in January 21.1%. At the time, that was the largest increase in prices since the first measurement in 1995. Since June 2013, there has been an upward trend. Compared to June 2013, prices were almost 96% higher in April. The Land Registry announced that it registered 15,972 housing transactions in April. That is almost 16% less than a year earlier. In the first four months of this year, 59,895 homes were sold, 30% less than in the same period of 2021.
The German business climate unexpectedly rose in May. This was revealed on Monday by the research institute Ifo. The Ifo index for the German business climate for industry and trade rose from 91.9 in April to 93.0 this month. Economists had previously counted on an index reading of 91.2. The sub-index for the current situation registered at 97.3, and for the future development the sub-index went to 86.9.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to -0.08% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 1.73% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Consumer prices in Japan rose 2.5% on an annual basis in April. Although significantly lower than the inflation rate in European countries, this is the highest inflation rate in 13 years in Japan. In March, consumer prices were still up 1.2% year-on-year. The Japanese central bank, like many European central banks, is still aiming for inflation of 2.0%.
Last month, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported that the confidence of Dutch consumers has never been so low. This morning, Statistics Netherlands reported that confidence improved somewhat in May, but very slightly. Consumer confidence in May came to a reading of -47, compared to -48 in April, the lowest point since measurement began in 1986. The average over the past twenty years is -9.
Between May 7 and May 14, 218,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the United States. The number of new applications unexpectedly rose by 21,000 from a week earlier. Analysts had only taken into account an increase of 3,000. The four-week moving average, usually less volatile, came out at 199,500 applications. The number of applications still hovers around the lowest point in over 50 years, 187,000 applications.
The 6M Euribor increased with 4 basis points to -0.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 1.69% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Crude oil inventories in the United States fell last week. This was revealed on Wednesday by figures from the US energy agency EIA. In the week ending May 13, crude oil inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels to 420.8 million. Here, an increase of 1.4 million barrels had been anticipated by economists. Gasoline stocks fell 4.8 million barrels to 220.2 million barrels. The expectation was a decrease of 1 million barrels. Fuel oil and diesel stocks rose 1.2 million barrels to 105.3 million. A stable level had been expected. Refinery capacity utilization was 91.8% compared to 90.0% a week earlier.
Registrations of new passenger cars in the Netherlands fell by 7.4% year-on-year in April, while in the European Union registrations fell by 20.6% in the same month. This was reported by the European automotive industry association ACEA on Wednesday. In the Netherlands, the number of registrations decreased last month to 22,087 cars. In March, sales were still up by 3.8% year-on-year. France still showed a substantial minus of 22.6% in April, more substantial than was reported for March. Germany, by far the largest car manufacturer of the EU, reported a 21.5% decline compared to a 17.5% decline in March.
Consumer prices in the eurozone rose at a steady pace in April compared to March. This was revealed on Wednesday by final figures from Eurostat. Inflation was 7.4% in April, the same as in March. In February the inflation rate was 5.9% and in January it was 5.1%. A preliminary estimate indicated an inflation of 7.5% for April. Core inflation, an important indicator for the ECB, was 3.5% on an annual basis in April, as expected. This was 3.0% in March. For March, a core inflation rate of 2.9% was reported earlier.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to -0.17% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 1.74% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Japanese economy contracted in the first quarter of 2022. This was revealed this morning by preliminary figures from the Japanese government. The gross domestic product (GDP) shrank in the first quarter by 0.2% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. The decline was smaller than economists had predicted. They took into account a contraction of 0.4%. On an annual basis, GDP fell by 1.0%.
The entrepreneurial confidence in the Netherlands increased in most sectors at the beginning of the second quarter 2022. The sentiment indicator stood at 16.8 and was positive for the fifth quarter in a row. In the first quarter of 2022, the indicator still stood at 6.4. Especially in the hospitality sector a strong increase was visible, after all corona measures in the Netherlands were lifted in February 2022.
Consumer prices in the UK rose further in April. This was revealed this morning by figures from the UK statistics office ONS. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 2.5% in April after a 1.1% plus in March. On an annual basis, consumer prices rose 9.0% in April. That was 7.0% a month earlier.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to -0.19% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 8 basis points to 1.77% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The European Commission announced at the Spring 2022 Economic Forecast press conference that it is lowering its growth forecast for this year. Earlier, a growth of the gross domestic product of 4.0% was expected, but this expectation was adjusted to 2.7%. On the other hand, the expectation for inflation was raised to 6.1%. The European Commission expects to see a peak in inflation in the second quarter of 2022, which will then slowly decline.
The tension on the Dutch labor market has further increased in the first quarter of 2022, according to the figures published by Statistics Netherlands. For every 100 job seekers there are 133 vacancies open, whereas at the end of 2021 there were 106. The increased tension on the job market is the result of the constant growth in the number of vacancies combined with declining unemployment. Most vacancies can be found in trade, business services and care which together account for about half of all vacancies.
Figures published today by the UK’s Office for National Statistics, ONS, show that UK unemployment continued to fall in the first quarter of 2022. Whereas the unemployment rate was 4.0% at the end of 2021, it fell to 3.7% in early 2022.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.21% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 1.69% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
This week there will be attention in the market for economic growth figures. On Tuesday GDP growth figures will be published for the Netherlands and the Eurozone and on Wednesday Japan will follow. Furthermore, on Wednesday inflation figures will be published from the United Kingdom. A day later, unemployment figures from the Netherlands will be published and the European Central Bank (ECB) will publish its minutes from the most recent meeting. Finally, on Friday, consumer confidence figures will follow in, among others, the Eurozone and Belgium.
Industrial production in China unexpectedly fell in April. This was revealed Monday morning by new government figures. Economists had predicted an increase in the production volume of 1.0%, but this figure actually fell by 2.9% on an annual basis. On a monthly basis, production fell by 7.1%.
The closing price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was 4.0% higher at the end of the day Friday than at the beginning of the day. The price of a barrel of WTI now stands at USD 110.49. However, according to analysts, there are two opposing forces at play in the market at the moment. On the one hand, due to the lingering conflict in Ukraine, there are concerns about the supply of oil. On the other hand, there are concerns about demand due to globally high inflation and lockdowns in China.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.21% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 7 basis points to 1.72% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The UK’s trade deficit widened sharply in the first quarter of 2022. This was reported by the UK statistics agency ONS yesterday. The deficit increased from GBP 14.9 billion to GBP 25.2 billion. With this, the trade deficit reached its highest level ever. Economists had taken into account a significantly lower increase in the trade deficit, to GBP 18.5 billion.
Earlier this year, OPEC projected that daily demand for oil would grow by 3.67 million barrels. This growth has been revised downwards to an increase in daily demand of 3.31 million barrels. OPEC still expects oil demand to rise to 100 million barrels per day in the third quarter this year.
The number of bankruptcies in the Netherlands fell in April this year to the lowest number since measurements began in 1981. This was reported by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) this morning. In March a slight increase was still observed, in April a decrease of 71 was reported. Since mid-2020, partly due to corona aid, a downward trend has been visible in the number of bankruptcies.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.21% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 15 basis points to 1.65% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde hinted at a first interest rate increase in the summer in a speech in Slovenia on Wednesday. Lagarde reiterated that the first interest rate hike will come after “some time”, after the buyback programme is over. Although the exact timing is yet to be determined, Lagarde said that “I have been very clear that this could mean a period of just a few weeks”. After the first increase, a gradual process will follow, Lagarde said. At the end of April, Vice-President Luis de Guindos also said an interest rate increase in July was possible. The ECB meets on 9 June and then on 21 July and 8 September.
The consumer prices in the United States rose faster than expected in April. This was shown Wednesday by figures from the U.S. Department of Labor. Consumer prices increased last month by 0.3% on a monthly basis and on an annual basis prices increased by 8.3%, compared to 8.5% in March. Core inflation, i.e. adjusted for food and energy prices, was 0.6% on a monthly basis in April, up from 0.3% in March. On an annual basis, core inflation was 6.2% compared to 6.5% a month earlier. The outlook for inflation was 8.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. Core inflation was expected to be 6.0% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month.
Crude oil stocks in the United States rose sharply last week. This was revealed on Wednesday by figures from the American energy agency EIA. In the week to 6 May, crude oil stocks rose by 8.5 million barrels to 424.2 million. Gasoline stocks decreased by 3.6 million barrels to 225.0 million barrels. Fuel oil and diesel stocks decreased by 0.9 million barrels to 104.0 million. Refinery capacity utilisation was 90.0%, compared to 88.4% a week earlier.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to -0.20% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 7 basis points to 1.80% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Ney York’s quarterly household debt report showed that U.S. household debt rose to a record USD 15.84 trillion in the first quarter driven almost entirely by a USD 250 billion increase in home loan balances. Mortgage debt climbed to USD 11.18 trillion at the end of March, and now accounts for 71% of total household debt, the highest share in roughly a decade.
Yesterday morning, TerraUSD’s price fell below USD 0.70, while it is a stablecoin that should always hold a price of USD 1. This led to panic on crypto markets, where the price of bitcoin fell below USD 30,000, its lowest point in ten months.
Inflation in the Netherlands rose slightly less rapidly in April than in March, the CBS announced. Consumer goods and services were 9.6% more expensive in April than a year earlier. In March the monetary devaluation was 9.7%.
The 6M Euribor increased with 3 basis points to -0.18% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 8 basis points to 1.87% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Consumer prices in the Netherlands rose by 9.6% year-on-year in April, according to the figures published by Statistics Netherlands. On an annual basis, the price of motor fuel in April increased by 24.8% while in March it was still 36.5% and thus had a moderating effect on inflation. Also, the energy price had a lowering effect on the inflation figures. In March, the year-on-year price increase stood at 157% and fell to 136% in April. The increase in food prices had an upward effect on inflation after it became 8.5% more expensive in April compared to a year earlier, which was 6.2% in March.
Manufacturing in the Netherlands increased by more than 7% year-on-year in March. The largest growth was in the machinery industry which increased by over 35%. In contrast, the transport equipment industry shrank by 10%. Confidence among industry entrepreneurs also saw an improvement in April, rising well above the average of recent years.
U.S. equity markets ended Monday back in the red. The S&P 500 fell 3.2% to close at 3,991.23 points. The Down Jones index ended at 32,2345.70 points, losing 2.0% while the Nasdaq lost as much as 4.3%, ending at 11,623.25 points. The decline was mainly due to fears of high inflation and a slowdown in growth in the United States, the final figures of which will be announced later this week.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.21% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 1.95% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Following the lead of the United States, the G7 has decided to boycott Russian oil. This was announced on Sunday after a meeting of the G7 countries, to which Volodimir Zelensky was also invited. In this way, the G7 is trying to disrupt the financing of the Russian war in Ukraine. The 7 countries will jointly ensure a stable global energy supply.
On Monday, the market will pay attention to China’s trade balance. A day later, Dutch inflation and industrial production figures follow. Inflation figures are scheduled for mid-week in Germany, the US and China. These are relevant for the interest rate policy of the central banks. On Wednesday, further attention will be paid to US oil stocks. Finally, a French inflation figure will follow on Friday.
China’s export growth slowed to single digits in April, while imports were unchanged as tighter and wider COVID-19 restrictions halted factory production, disrupted supply chains and triggered a collapse in domestic demand. Exports in dollar terms grew 3.9% in April from a year earlier, compared with the 14.7% growth reported in March and slightly surpassing analysts’ forecast of 3.2%.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.21% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 11 basis points to 1.93% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Bank of England (BoE) has, in line with expectations, raised interest rates further. Yesterday the BoE announced its decision. The key interest rate was raised by 25 basis points to 1.00%. The decision was not unanimous. Opponents preferred to see an interest rate hike of 50 basis points. The British key interest rate is now at its highest level in 13 years.
Between April 23 and April 30, 200,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the United States. The number of new claims rose sharply by 19,000 compared to a week earlier. Analysts had only factored in an increase of 1,000. However, the number of applications still hovers around the lowest point in over 50 years.
The closing price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was 0.4% higher at the end of the day yesterday than at the beginning. A price of a barrel of WTI now stands at USD 108.26, despite the news that OPEC+ will increase its output by another 432,000 barrels per day.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.21% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 1.82% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has raised the key interest rate by 50 basis points as expected. This was announced Wednesday evening by the U.S. central bank. The federal funds rate was increased by 50 basis points to a range of 0.75 to 1.00%. In mid-March, the U.S. central bank already raised the interest rate by 25 basis points. The discount rate was increased by 0.50 percentage points to 1.00%. Commenting on the decision, the U.S. central bank said that economic activity declined slightly in the first quarter, but households continued to spend and companies continued to invest. Inflation remains high due to supply and demand imbalances, the corona crisis, rising energy prices and general price pressures, the Fed said.
Inventories of crude oil in the United States rose slightly last week, while stocks of gasoline and heating oil declined. This was reported by the American energy agency EIA on Wednesday. In the week ending 29 April, crude oil stocks increased by 1.3 million barrels to 415.7 million. Economists had expected in advance a decrease of 0.2 million barrels. Gasoline stocks decreased by 2.2 million barrels to 228.6 million barrels. A decrease of 300,000 barrels had been expected. Fuel oil and diesel stocks decreased by 2.3 million barrels to 104.9 million. A decrease of 1.5 million barrels had been forecast. The refineries’ capacity utilisation rate was 88.4%. This was 90.3% a week earlier.
Private sector employment in the United States rose significantly weaker than expected in April. This was shown Wednesday by figures from payroll processor ADP. The number of jobs increased in April by 247,000 jobs. Economists had expected a growth of 390,000 jobs. In March, the number of jobs increased by 479,000, an upward revision of 24,000. Last month, ADP reported an increase of 455,000 jobs.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.20% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 1.76% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The latest figures from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision show that Australia’s central bank is raising the policy rate to 0.35%. This decision is in response to rising inflation and rising wages which has sufficiently demonstrated the resilience of the Australian economy. It is expected that Australia will have an unemployment rate of 3.5% in early 2023, which will be the lowest in 50 years.
The price of a barrel WTI oil rose to USD 105.34 in anticipation of the new sanctions the European union is preparing. The European commission is expected to announce the new sanctions against Russia later today these will likely include a ban on buying oil from Russia.
After European stock markets already opened with losses on Monday, they lost even more after a flash crash took place in the Nordic countries around 10 am. The OMX Stockholm 30 index lost almost 8% in 5 minutes but managed to recover in short time. According to a spokesman for the Nasdaq Stockholm, the cause of the crash was not a technical glitch but a large transaction.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 1.76% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
This week, the focus is mainly on central banks. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 50 basis point hike in its key interest rate on Wednesday, because inflation remains high while the labor market is healthy. The oil price may also move due to the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Thursday. Last week the oil price rose by about 3 percent.
In Japan, consumer confidence rose in April. This was revealed on Monday from figures from the Japanese government. The confidence index rose from 32.8 to 33.0, after falling a month earlier. Japanese industry rose less sharply in April. The Japanese manufacturing purchasing managers’ index declined from 54.1 in March to 53.5 in April. A preliminary figure indicated a drop to 53.4. An index reading greater than 50 indicates growth, while less than 50 indicates contraction.
A further depreciation of the euro is expected given the current market developments. Last week the euro even fell below USD 1.05. Currency specialists indicate that the expected interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve are already fully factored into the exchange rate. Although less likely now, peace negotiations in Ukraine could take the pressure off the euro exchange rate.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 1.72% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
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