The GDP of the United States shrank by 1.4% in the first quarter of this year compared to the first quarter of 2021. This was revealed yesterday by the U.S. Department of Commerce. The cause, according to the ministry, lies in an increase in imports, decreased exports and increased inflation. The annual inflation rate at the end of the first quarter is 7.8% compared to 7.0% at the end of the fourth quarter in 2021.
Between April 16 and April 23, there were 180,000 initial jobless claims in the United States. The number of new claims fell slightly by 5,000 compared to a week earlier. Analysts had also expected a decline of 4,000. This leaves the number of jobless claims hovering around the lowest point in over 50 years.
The closing price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was 3.3% higher at the end of the day yesterday than at the beginning. A price of a barrel of WTI now stands at USD 105.36. In addition to the lingering conflict in Ukraine, the corona outbreak in China and the halt on Russian gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria, are now being pointed to as causes for the increase.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.25% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 11 basis points to 1.68% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
announced that consumer confidence in Germany fell more than expected in May. The confidence index came in at 26.5 negative, compared to 15.7 negative in April.
The euro has fallen to 1.05 amid the war in Ukraine, outbreaks of COVID-19 in China and the impact of high inflation and tighter monetary policy on the global economy. The price reflects the current concern in the market. Analysts expect two rate hikes by the European Central Bank before the end of 2022. The interest rate differential between Germany and the US is also expected to remain large in 2022. The interest rate differential is expected to narrow in 2023. This is likely to give the euro a boost in 2023.
Producer confidence in Dutch industry improved in April. This has been announced by Statistics Netherlands. The confidence index rose from 8.7 in March to 10.8 in April, with entrepreneurs being more positive about expected activity. Although confidence rose in all sectors, producers in the electrical and machine industries were particularly positive.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.25% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 1.57% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The AEX is expected to see a strong recovery today after it closed Monday with a loss of over 2.5% at 699.19 points. The decline is partly due to fears of an increasing growth slowdown in China as more and more cities in China go into lockdown due to the re-emerging corona virus. At close of the AEX index, the S&P 500 noted a decline of 1.8% but eventually managed to close the day with 0.6% profit in anticipation of the figures that over a third of the companies in the S&P 500 will release this week.
According to IMF expectations, stagflation may begin to occur in Asia, as a result of rising commodity prices and declining trades with European trading partners due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, China’s weakening economy is intensifying pressure on regional growth.
The price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil fell 3.5% on Monday to a price of USD 98.54. Sentiment was suppressed by concerns around lockdowns in China which could have a major impact on oil demand. In addition, the EU has announced the preparation of possible new sanctions against energy imports from Russia.
The 6M Euribor increased with 4 basis points to -0.27% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 8 basis points to 1.59% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Today the week starts with German and Belgian business confidence figures. The United States consumer confidence from the Conference Board will follow on Tuesday, Russian economic growth is scheduled for Wednesday and we will look at the US and Belgian growth figures on Thursday. Finally, also the US consumer confidence figure of the University of Michigan is published.
The euro is likely to remain under pressure against the dollar in the near term, as the European Central Bank so far has not raised interest rates. The slow response of the ECB could lead to a further decline in the euro against the dollar in the near term. According to currency analysts, the next support level for the euro is around $1.06.
U.S. oil refiners expect strong first-quarter earnings as margins to sell gasoline and diesel strengthened due to a steep drop off in refining capacity and crude oil supplies tightened because of the war in Ukraine. Refining capacity worldwide has decreased during the coronavirus pandemic, with various less profitable oil refineries closing in the last two years. However, worldwide fuel demand has rebounded to near pre-pandemic levels, boosting profits for the facilities which are still operating.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to -0.31% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 1.67% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Consumer prices in the Eurozone rose sharply in March. This was revealed yesterday by final figures from Eurostat. The annual inflation rate in March was 7.4%. The previous estimate of inflation by Eurostat was 7.5%. Inflation continues to rise given that in February and January inflation figures were still reported at 5.9% and 5.1% respectively. Core inflation, which adjusts for energy prices among other things, was 2.9% year-on-year in March.
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos considers an interest rate increase in July to be possible. This was reported by Bloomberg yesterday afternoon. De Guindos also said that he sees no reason for why the bond buying program cannot end in July. This statement follows the news earlier this week that the chairman of the central bank of Latvia, Martins Kazaks, also expected an interest rate increase in July. Following the vice president’s statements, the euro rose to its highest level in the past week.
Between April 9 and April 16, there were 184,000 initial jobless claims in the United States. The number of new claims fell slightly by 2,000 compared to a week earlier. Analysts had expected a stronger decline of 4,000. This still leaves the number of applications hovering around the lowest point in over 50 years.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.33% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 8 basis points to 1.65% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The confidence of Dutch consumers has fallen to its lowest level ever. This is evident from figures from Statistics Netherlands (CBS) published this morning. The index that measures consumer confidence came out at -48 in April this year. In March 2022 the index came out at -39. The previous low was reached in March 2013 during the euro crisis, when the consumer confidence score stood at -41. The average consumer confidence over the past twenty years is -8.
In the week ending April 15, crude oil inventories increased by 8.0 million barrels to 413.7 million. This was revealed on Wednesday by figures from the US energy agency EIA. Gasoline stocks, on the other hand, fell by 0.8 million barrels to 232.4 million barrels. Capacity utilization rose 1 percentage point to 91.0% from a week earlier.
Unemployment in the Netherlands continued to decline in March. This is evident from figures from the Statistics Netherlands (CBS) published this morning. In March the number of unemployed in the Netherlands was 327,000 or 3.3% of the labor force of approximately 9.8 million. In February this year, unemployment was still 3.4%. In July 2020, unemployment in the Netherlands reached its highest point in 5 years at 5.5%. Since then, unemployment has been falling steadily.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.33% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 7 basis points to 1.57% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday. In it, they lowered their expectations for global growth in 2022 by 0.8 percentage points to 3.6%. Furthermore, the IMF says central banks must act resolutely, given that high inflation in developed countries threatens to affect consumers and entrepreneurs.
U.S. 10-year treasury yields have risen to their highest point since 2018 and German ten-year yields are heading towards 1%. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard provoked bond markets in a speech on Monday, saying that the Federal Reserve should bring interest rates to 3.5% as soon as possible, where the range of policy rates currently is between 0.25% and 0.50%.
Russia’s central bank said on Tuesday that it had temporarily suspended the publication of external debt data. Foreign debt payments are a sensitive issue right now as Russia, hit by western sanctions against its financial system, teeters on the brink of a possible default.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.32% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 7 basis points to 1.64% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The U.S. stock markets experienced little change on Monday. Both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones index rose 0.1% to 4,397.37 and 34,490.12 points respectively. The Nasdaq had a slight decline of 0.1%, closing at 13,334.96. European stock markets were closed on Monday due to Easter Monday, but are expected to open slightly higher on Tuesday.
Most of the main indices in Asia quoted in the green this morning. However, the stock market in Hong Kong recorded a negative start with a loss of more than 2%. Pressure is mounting on the Chinese technology sector after China announced a ban on the live streaming of unauthorized video games.
Final figures from Japan’s Ministry of Trade and Industry show that Japanese Industry is up a lot more than previously expected. On a monthly basis, the expectation was an increase of 0.1% but turns out to actually stand at 2.0%.
The price for a barrel of WTI oil closed higher on Monday at USD 108.21. The oil price rose 9% last week, breaking the downward trend present in the two weeks prior.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.33% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 9 basis points to 1.57% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Yesterday the European Central Bank announced it will not change its key interest rates. The deposit rate thus remains at negative 0.50 percent, the policy rate at 0.00 percent and the penalty rate at 0.25 percent. The decision is in line with previous announcements and minutes that the ECB intended to leave interest rates unchanged. In addition, it was reconfirmed that monthly purchases from the bond purchase program will be EUR 40 billion in April, EUR 30 billion in May and EUR 20 billion in June. The purchases will be discontinued in the third quarter.
The World Steel Association (WSA) expects steel demand to continue to rise in the remainder of 2022 and into 2023. Steel prices already peaked last month due to the Ukraine war. The WSA expects steel demand to rise 0.4 percent this year to 1,840 million tons. In 2023, steel demand will continue to grow, but by 2.2 percent to over 1,881 million tons.
Between March 2 and April 9, 185,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the United States. The number of new claims unexpectedly rose sharply by 18,000 from a week earlier. Analysts had taken into account a slight increase of 5,000. The number of applications does continue to hover around the lowest point in over 50 years.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.33% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 9 basis points to 1.57% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Consumer prices in the United Kingdom increased further in March. This was shown on Wednesday by figures from the ONS statistical office. Prices rose by 7.0% on an annual basis. In February this was 6.2% and in January 5.5%. On a monthly basis, prices increased by 1.1%, after an increase of 0.8% in February. The Bank of England still aims for an inflation rate of 2.0%.
Producer prices in the United States increased more in March than in February. This was reported by the U.S. Department of Labor on Wednesday. In March, producer prices increased by 1.4% on a monthly basis. Economists expected an increase of 1.1%. In February, prices rose by a slightly upwardly revised 0.9%. Excluding volatile trade, food and energy prices, US producer prices rose 0.9% month-on-month in March. In February, the increase was 0.2%. On an annual basis, producer prices rose by 11.2% in March and core prices by 7.0%.
Inventories of crude oil in the United States rose sharply last week. This was revealed on Wednesday by figures from the US energy agency EIA. In the week ending April 8, crude oil stocks increased by 9.4 million barrels to 421.8 million. In contrast, gasoline stocks decreased by 3.6 million barrels to 233.1 million barrels. Fuel oil and diesel stocks decreased by 2.9 million barrels to 111.4 million. Refinery capacity utilisation fell to 90.0% from 92.5% a week earlier.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.33% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 0.10% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The increase in the general price level in the United States rose to 8.5% in March, the U.S. Department of Labor reported. This is the highest rate since December 1981. Energy and food prices contributed most to the high inflation rate. Without those two factors, inflation reached 6.5%, which also ranks as the highest core inflation rate in some 40 years.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its forecast for world trade growth downward because of the war between Ukraine and Russia. Instead of the previously estimated 4.7% growth, it is now counting on 3% growth. According to the WTO, world trade is being hit at a critical time by the war.
Oil prices climbed on Tuesday as Shanghai’s relaxation of some COVID-19 restrictions eased concerns about Chinese demand and as OPEC warned it would be impossible to replace potential supply losses from Russia. Brent crude futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate both rose by more than 5%, while both contracts lost about 4% on Monday.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to -0.33% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 1.49% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The U.S. stock markets closed considerably lower on Monday. The Dow Jones index fell 1.2% to 34,308.08 and the S&P500 declined 1.7% and ended at 4,412.53 points. The Nasdaq closed even lower with 2.2% at 13,411.96. Today, the latest US inflation figures will be announced. Consumer prices in the United States are expected to have risen 8.4% year-on-year, which will be the highest level since 1982. This is also the last consumer price index that the Federal Reserve will use for the upcoming monetary policy meeting.
Unemployment in the UK continued to fall in the three months to February, according to figures published on Tuesday by the UK’s Office for National Statistics. The unemployment rate came in at 3.8%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. Figures from the German statistics office Destatis showed that consumer prices in Germany rose faster in March than a month earlier. German inflation stood at 7.3% year-on-year in March, while in February it was 5.1%. On a monthly basis, this represents a 2.5% increase in prices.
The price of oil recorded a price of USD 92 before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and rose to a price of USD 124 in March. The current oil price fell 4% on Monday to a price of USD 94.29, almost returning to its pre-invasion level.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.35% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 9 basis points to 1.49% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
This week, three central banks will announce their plans for local interest rates. In New Zealand, an increase of 0.25 percentage point is expected. An increase of 0.5 percentage points is expected in Canada, bringing the rate there to 1 percent. Thursday, the ECB will convene to discuss monetary policy. Analysts say further weakening of the euro is imminent, not only against the Canadian and New Zealand dollars, but also against the US dollar. A peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could spark a rebound in the euro.
The earnings season starts this week in the US. The banks will be the first to present the quarterly figures. Several smaller funds are also opening the books in the Netherlands. On Monday, the market will focus on UK industrial production and Chinese inflation. On Tuesday, the focus will be on consumer prices in the US and Germany. In the middle of the week, UK inflation and US producer prices will follow.
According to credit rating agencies, Russia will no longer be able to pay its foreign debts in the short term. The last time the country failed to pay its foreign creditors was at the start of the Russian Revolution in 1917. Over the past week, Russia has paid some dollar loans in rubles. The country intends to continue to do so as long as it does not have access to foreign exchange reserves. Russia can no longer access those reserves thanks to sanctions imposed by other countries since its invasion of Ukraine.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.36% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 1.40% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is far behind schedule in steering U.S. inflation to the desired 2% level. This is what President of the St. Louis Fed James Bullard said on Thursday. Based on the Fed monetary policy rules, the Federal Funds Rate should have been at 3.5 percent by now, Bullard said. The Federal Funds Rate currently stands at 0.25 to 0.50 percent and inflation in the United States at nearly 8 percent.
Production in the Dutch manufacturing sector increased by 10.2% year-on-year in February this year. Production in the subsector “transport equipment” showed a decreased of 10.5%. On a monthly basis, production did decline slightly. The daily production index was 118.2 for February 2022. In the months of January 2022 and December 2021, the index was 118.7 and 120.5 respectively.
The U.S. Senate voted unanimously on Thursday to curb imports of Russian gas, oil and coal. An overwhelming majority, 413 to 9, in the House of Representatives voted in favour of the measures. This vote follows President Joe Biden’s earlier decision to stop energy imports from Russia.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to -0.36% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 1.34% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Russia edged closer to a potential default on its international debt yesterday, as it paid dollar bondholders in roubles. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia would continue to pay in roubles as long as its foreign exchange reserves are blocked by sanctions.
The euro steadied on Wednesday after falling to its lowest level in a month against a strengthening dollar. Pressure on the European currency increased by the prospect of new Western sanctions on Russia and the upcoming French presidential election.
Indian shares fell for a third straight session on Thursday, as global sentiment soured on hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve minutes, while investors looked forward to the Reserve Bank of India’s policy decision on Friday amid rising inflationary pressures. The NSE Nifty 50 index (.NSEI) declined 0.6% to 17,692.70 and the S&P BSE Sensex (.BSESN) fell 0.5% to 59,296, in line with broader Asia.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to -0.38% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 1.32% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The European Commission imposes new sanctions against Russia over the invasion of Ukraine. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the European Commission wants a ban on imports of Russian coal worth EUR 4 billion a year. As far as Brussels is concerned, European ports must from now on prevent ships from Russia from entering ports.
Data from Statistics Canada show that Canada’s exports rose 2.8% in February to a record high, driven mostly by energy products, while imports climbed 3.9% from the previous month. Economists anticipate more gains for exports ahead.
Hungary threatens to lose European subsidies because it does nog act sufficiently against corruption with EU funds and against the slipping of the rule of law. The European Commission has decided to take another step in the ongoing conflict with Budapest, President Ursula von der Leyen announced. On Sunday, Hungarian President Orbán recorded a convincing victory in the state elections.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.36% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 10 basis points to 1.27% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The stock market had a relatively quiet day. Many investors are awaiting the reaction of Western countries to the news and images of the Russian troops in Ukraine. Gentiloni, EU Commissioner for Economy, announced on Monday that there are many options for new sanctions against Russia including measures against the Russian energy sector. So far, EU countries have imposed little sanctions against the Russian energy sector because of its dependence on Russian gas. However, it is expected that the EU will not ban Russian gas in the short term due to the shortage of alternatives.
After the oil price fell significantly last week, the price rose again on Monday. A barrel of WTI cost USD 103 on Monday, which is 4% higher. This is partly explained by the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine which makes the use of Russian gas and oil increasingly difficult to justify in Western countries.
Despite the rising inflationary pressure in Australia, the Central Bank of Australia has decided to keep the policy rate at 0.10%. Since Australia produces many commodities, the rising commodity prices have a positive effect on national income and economic growth but brought negative consequences for disposable income. Immediately after the policy rate decision was announced, the value of the Australian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar and the euro, among others.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.36% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 1.17% compared to previous business day.
The week starts quietly with the Chinese stock markets closed on Monday. There are, however, export figures from Germany and factory orders from America. The market also pays particular attention to the purchasing managers indices for the services sector. Halfway through the week, when the Chinese stock markets reopen, the purchasing managers index from the Netherlands will also be announced. Wednesday evening, attention will mostly be devoted to the minutes of the latest interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve. The minutes of the European Central Bank will follow the next day. The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week.
Moscow reported on Friday that Ukrainian helicopters attacked an oil depot in the Russian city of Belgorod. The Kremlin said on Friday that the attack is making peace talks difficult. The US two-year yield rose above the ten-year yield for the third time this year on Friday. According to analysts, this is the best recession indicator. The Eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell from 58.2 in February to 56.5 in March, its lowest level since early 2021.
In March, the export of grain from Ukraine was four times smaller than in February, before the invasion of Russia. This was reported by the Ukrainian Ministry of Economy. The grain now must be transported more by rail rather than the Black Sea, from which many goods are normally exported. Ukraine is a major exporter of agricultural products such as grain, maize, and sunflower oil.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.37% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 1.20% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The annualized inflation rate in the Netherlands was 11.9% in March this year. The inflation figure was published this morning and is calculated on the basis of the European Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). In February, the inflation rate was 7.3%. The main driver of the current inflation are the high energy prices. On an annual basis, energy prices, including fuels, increased by 102.9%.
Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that as of today, Russian gas must be paid for in Russian rubles. This also applies to current contracts. To make payments in rubles, buyers are also required to open bank accounts with Russian banks. Bloomberg reported this yesterday. They also reported that Russia will continue to supply the agreed volumes at the agreed prices.
The United States is going to make the largest release from its oil reserve ever. This was announced by US President Joe Biden yesterday. The hope is that this will curb the soaring prices for oil and gas. This release will entail 1 million barrels per day in the coming months, which roughly amounts to 180 million barrels.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.37% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 8 basis points to 1.20% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
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