The European Central Bank (ECB) will gradually adjust its monetary policy and only raise interest rates sometime after the bond buying programme has ended. ECB President Christine Lagarde confirmed this on Wednesday. The buying programme will be stopped in the third quarter, if the inflation expectations remain as high as they are now. The ECB expects that the war in Ukraine will further increase inflation and that economic growth will slow down. In addition, energy prices are said to remain high for a longer period. Inflationary pressures on food prices are also likely to increase. Russia and Ukraine produce almost 30% of world wheat exports, while Belarus and Russia produce about a third of world potash production, which is an important raw material for fertilisers.
Consumer confidence in the eurozone continued to fall, in line with expectations, in March. This was shown Wednesday by figures from the European Commission. The index that reflects the confidence, is at 18.7 negative in March. In February this was 8.8 negative. The expectation of economists for March was also 18.7 negative. Economic sentiment also deteriorated. The index fell from 113.9 to 108.5.
The American economy grew slightly less fast in the fourth quarter of 2021 than previously reported. This became apparent on Wednesday from a final estimate by the US Department of Commerce. The gross domestic product (GDP) increased in the fourth quarter by 6.9% on an annual basis. In the previous estimate, a growth of 7.0% was reported. This downward revision was due to slightly lower exports and consumer spending. In the third quarter of 2021, growth in the US economy slowed to a revised 2.3%. This will also bring growth for the whole of 2021 to 5.7%, compared to a contraction of 3.4% in 2020. The PCE price index rose from 6.3% to 6.4% in the fourth quarter, while the core price index, which excludes food and energy, remained at 5.0%.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.38% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 1.28% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The yen fought to regain a footing yesterday, recovering a little from heavy selling as some traders start to see risks of official pushback if Japan’s currency falls much further. The yen lost 7% through March as the Bank of Japan has stuck with passive policy settings.
Consumer confidence in Germany took a hit in March, with the confidence index for German consumers falling 25 points to -22.1. The index is at its lowest point since January 2009, when it stood at -22.9 due to the credit crisis.
World equity markets surged and interest rates climbed on Tuesday, as face-to-face talks between Russia and Ukraine showed signs of progress.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.39% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 1.25% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
In recent weeks, Russia has seized about 800 foreign aircraft that Russian airlines had leased from mostly Western leasing companies. The action of the Russians has been described as the biggest theft ever in international civil aviation. Russia has detained the aircrafts, had them registered in a national aviation register and henceforth regards them as Russian property. The value of the confiscated
aircraft is estimated at between USD 11 and 13 billion. The fleet of aircraft accounts for approximately 10% of the total portfolio of leasing companies.
Russia’s war against Ukraine has already cost Ukraine USD 564.9 billion, Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko said on Monday. That is the result of destroyed buildings, roads and bridges and less economic growth, among other things. She also said that economic growth had already fallen by USD 112 billion and that there was USD 134 billion less investment in Ukrainian companies. Finally, the budget deficit was already USD 48 billion due to the effects of the ongoing war. The Minister stressed that the amounts continue to rise daily.
On Monday, the Japanese yen fell by more than 2% against the US dollar (USD). There were 125 yen to 1 dollar, with which the rate reached its lowest point since 2015. Later in the day, the Japanese currency made up for some of the decline in value. The yen experienced a decline when the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced it would buy an unlimited amount of 10-year government bonds. The interest rate had risen to 0.245%, which the Japanese central bank uses as a limit. The currency has been falling for some time now because, unlike other central banks, the Bank of Japan continues to pursue an accommodative monetary policy.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.39% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 1.20% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Coming week, investors can focus on a well-filled macroeconomic calendar. On Tuesday, figures of both German and US consumer confidence are published. The figures of France and the Eurozone follow on Wednesday. Belgian and German inflation are scheduled for Wednesday. France and America present their figures on Thursday, the entire Eurozone on Friday. On Wednesday, US GDP growth is also published and the UK posts its figures on Thursday. Also scheduled for Thursday are weekly jobless claims from the U.S., as well as unemployment figures from Germany and the entire Eurozone.
A new nuclear deal with Iran is more unsure than previously thought. U.S. special envoy to Iran, Robert Malley reported that he was not sure a deal was imminent. Earlier in the negotiations, Kamal Kharrazi, a senior adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told media that a deal was at hand. One of Iran’s main demands is that the United States lift the Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) designation against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This remains a thorny issue.
Last night, Chinese authorities announced that due to a corona outbreak, Shanghai will be temporarily locked down again. Two weeks ago, China was dealing with the highest number of infections since February 2020 and at this moment the number of infections is again flaring up. The eastern part of the city will be closed from March 28 to April 1. During this period, there will be massive testing. From April 1 to April 5, the western part of the city will be closed for testing. In addition, public transportation is shut down and everyone is expected to work at home
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.40% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 1.19% compared to previous business day.
Dutch GDP increased by 1.0% in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to the third quarter. This was reported by Statistics Netherlands (CBS). Previous calculations showed a growth of 0.9%. On an annual basis, growth was 6.5%. The previous calculation showed a growth of 6.2%. The growth figures of other quarters have also been updated: The first quarter of 2021 has been adjusted from -2.4% to -2.2%, the second quarter growth from 10.4% to 10.7% and the third quarter growth from 5.2% to 5.4%.
The oil price has fallen slightly again. Yesterday the market closed with a price of USD 112.34 for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate, 2.0% lower than the day before. According to BNP Paribas, the price of oil will be above USD 100 per barrel on average every quarter until at least the end of 2023, even if the war in Ukraine is resolved quickly. However, market experts also pointed to reports that progress is again being made in talks with Iran on a nuclear deal. If an agreement is reached, Iran could return to exporting oil on a large scale, which would put pressure on oil prices.
Between March 12 and March 19, 187,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the United States. The number of new applications fell by 28,000 compared to a week earlier. Analysts had expected a decline of 5,000. This brings the total number of jobless claims to the lowest level since September 6, 1969.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.39% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 7 basis points to 1.14% compared to previous business day.
The European Commission wants European countries to pool their gas purchases and is proposing an obligation to replenish gas stocks for the coming winter. Joint purchasing would make it easier for member states to import energy at a good and fair price, without having to bid against each other. Collective purchasing should also be applied to the import of renewable gas and hydrogen. The bill requires gas storage to be increased to at least 80% of capacity for the winter this year. This would rise to 90% in the following years to provide energy security.
Producer prices in the UK continued to rise in February. This was shown Wednesday by figures from the British statistical office ONS. On a monthly basis prices increased with 0.8%, after the increase of 1.2% in January. On a yearly basis producer prices increased by 10.1% in February, compared to 9.9% a month earlier. Economists had previously expected an increase of 0.8% on a monthly basis and 9.9% on an annual basis.
The stocks of crude oil in the United States decreased last week. This is reported by the American energy agency EIA. In the week ending 18 March, crude oil stocks decreased by 2.5 million barrels to 413.4 million. Gasoline stocks decreased by 2.9 million barrels to 238.0 million barrels. Fuel oil and diesel stocks decreased by 2.1 million barrels to 112.1 million. Refinery capacity utilisation was 91.1%, down from 90.4% a week earlier.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.39% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 1.07% compared to previous business day.
Today, the last corona measures in the Netherlands will end, making Dutch society completely measure-free again after two years. After the relaxation of recent weeks, Germany, Italy and Greece now have the strictest corona measures in Europe.
Researchers from the Green Finance & Development Center, a think tank affiliated with Fudan University in Shanghai, say in a report that developing countries will have to pay China USD 14 billion in debt this year. After the World Bank, China is the largest lender to developing countries.
Egypt’s Suez Canal Authority said on Tuesday it will temporarily amend a surcharge levied on laden crude oil tankers and petroleum products tankers transiting the canal in both directions to 15% of normal transit dues, effective May 1. It said that ballast crude oil tankers and petroleum products tankers transiting the Canal in both directions are still required to pay a surcharge of 5% of normal transit dues.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.39% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 1.13% compared to previous business day.
Capital markets today are mainly concerned with the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine rejected Russia’s ultimatum to give up the city Mariupol. The President of the European Central Bank Lagarde announced in her speech that no indication of stagflation is visible in the Eurozone. Even in the worst case scenario where the conflict between Ukraine and Russia deteriorates further and the oil and gas supply from Russia is halted, the Eurozone is still expected to grow by 2.3 percent.
The Federal Reserve is prepared to raise interest rates further by 0.5 percentage point increments to counter inflation. This follows the Federal Reserve’s earlier move last week that raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points for the first time in 3 years. Assuming an annual inflation rate of 2 percent, the neutral rate is expected to be around 2.5 percent.
Housing prices in the Netherlands in February rose less rapidly than a month earlier. House prices were 20.2 percent higher in February compared to a year earlier. In January, this was an increase of 21.1 percent which was the largest increase since 1995. In 2013, the housing market had reached a low point and has since been in an upward trend and has risen by 91.7 percent.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.39% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 9 basis points to 1.10% compared to previous business day.
Yemen’s rebels attacked at least six sites across Saudi Arabia on Saturday and Sunday. The group backed by Iran targeted a fuel depot in Jazan in the southwest of the kingdom and a natural gas plant in the Red Sea city of Yanbu. West Texas intermediate for April delivery rose 3.5% to $108.32 a barrel.
With the earnings season behind us, the focus for this week will be on the Ukraine conflict. There has been little news about the negotiations in recent days. Market analysts indicate that there is growing skepticism about whether Russia is really interested in an agreement. On Monday, German product prices will be on the macroeconomic agenda. These are very important data for central bankers’ policy. A series of composite industrial and services purchasing manager indices will be released Thursday, passing through Japan, Europe and the Americas. The week will be closed on Friday with the figure for Dutch economic growth for the fourth quarter of the 2nd estimate.
The Australian government immediately banned the export of alumina and aluminum ore to Russia. This has consequences for Russian exports to the car industry, aerospace and construction sectors, among other things. Aluminum is also essential to the arms industry and Australia supplies nearly 20 percent of Russia’s alumina. In 2021, Australia exported nearly USD 10 billion worth of bauxite, alumina and aluminum.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.40% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 1.01% compared to previous business day.
The Bank of England (BoE) decided yesterday to raise its interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%. Since December 2021, the BoE has been slowly raising its interest rate. First from 0.10% to 0.25%, in February 2022 to 0.50% and as of March 17, 2022 to 0.75%. With this, the British central bank expects to decrease inflation, which it expects to peak at 7.25% in April this year. Over the next two years, the BoE expects to meet its inflation target of 2.0%.
Japan’s inflation rate rose on both a monthly and annual basis in February 2022. Compared to January this year, prices increased by 0.5% and an increase of 0.9% was observed compared to February last year. Between September 2020 and September 2021, Japan experienced deflation. Since September 2021, Japanese inflation has thus returned to positive levels. Like many other central banks, the Central Bank of Japan is targeting an annual inflation rate of 2.0%.
Between March 5 and March 12, 214,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the United States. The number of new applications decreased by 15,000 compared to a week earlier. Analysts had taken into account a decrease of 9,000. The total number of applications remains around the level of before the coronapandemic.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to -0.39% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 1.01% compared to previous business day.
The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time since 2018. The Fed is raising interest rates to a range of 0.25% to 0.50%. Policymakers expect to raise interest rates six more times this year, so that the policy rate will stand at around 2% by the end of 2022. In addition to the rate hikes, the Fed will also reduce its balance sheet which has increased substantially as a result of the bond purchase programme during the corona pandemic.
If the war in Ukraine, in addition to higher energy prices, also leads to a decrease in world trade and a lower willingness to invest, the Dutch economy could end up in a ‘short-term recession’ this year. This is what the CPB Netherlands reported on Wednesday. Inflation would then rise to almost 8%, which would reduce purchasing power by more than 5%. Excise tax cuts and compensation from the government have not been taken into account. In the gloomy scenario, the growth of world trade will be 2.5% this year, a considerable difference with the 6.6% in the basis estimate. Dutch exports take an even bigger hit: growth of 0.9% instead of 4.9%.
Unemployment in the Netherlands fell in February to its lowest level since 2003. Especially young people found work again, reported Statistics Netherlands (CBS) on Thursday. Last month there were 336,000 unemployed, or 3.4% of the labour force. In January the unemployment rate was still 3.6%. Over the past three months, the number of unemployed fell by an average of 8,000 a month. Last month the UWV benefits agency issued 187,600 unemployment benefits. This was 5,300 less than in January.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.41% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 1.06% compared to previous business day.
The European Union is depriving Russia of the trade privileges it has previously enjoyed as a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). This makes import quotas and customs duties possible. The sanction is part of the fourth set of sanctions that the EU is imposing on Russia.
As of today, futures contracts for nickel can be traded again on the metal exchange in London. This comes a week after the biggest crisis in the metals market in decades. Limits have been placed on the price movements of nickel and those of other metals.
The oil price fell sharply yesterday. A barrel of Brent crude oil costs less than 100 dollar for the first time since February. China’s expected rapid economic recovery is delayed now that the country is once again in the grip of the corona virus. That will reduce the demand for oil, investors expect.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.41% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 1.03% compared to previous business day.
European markets saw a rise yesterday. The Stoxx Europe 600 closed 1,2% higher at 436,35 and the French CAC 40 rose 1,8% to 6,369.94. The German DAX closed 2,2% higher at 13,929.11 points and the British GTSE closed just 0,5% higher at 7,193.47. This is in sharp contrast to last weekend’s escalation between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, there is growing concern among investors that the Russian economy is on the verge of collapse as a result of sanctions imposed by Western countries. Credit rating agency Fitch expects that Russia will not be able to pay off the debts that are due later this week.
In contrast to the European markets, the U.S. markets declined. The S&P500 fell 0,7% to 4,173.11 points and the Nasdaq lost even 2,0% to end at 12,581.22. Only the Dow Jones rose slightly and ended at 32,945.24 points. This decline results from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting that will take place this week. It is expected to result in the first interest rate increase since 2018. According to analysts, interest rates will be raised by 0,25 percentage points due to the 8% inflation rate in the United States.
The price of a barrel of WTI oil fell by over 7%, reaching a price of USD 101. However, concerns about a possible rising price in the oil market are again increasing due to a large Omikron outbreak in China.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to -0.41% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 11 basis points to 1.05% compared to previous business day.
The macro agenda for this week is again quite busy. On Tuesday there will be a series of Chinese data, French inflation, German ZEW sentiment, industrial production in the eurozone and the American Empire State index. In addition, a monthly report from oil cartel OPEC will be published. The IEA oil report will follow in midweek and the markets will focus on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates. Most analysts expect an increase of 25 basis points. On Thursday, the eurozone inflation rate will be published. Finally, the Bank of Japan will follow on Friday with its interest rate decision.
Because of the war in Ukraine, Germany is open to talk about the extraction of natural gas in the North Sea. The Dutch government is in favor of such development. A meeting between Economic Affairs of Lower Saxony and a large gas production company in the Netherlands is scheduled for later this month. The economic minister of Lower Saxony Bernd Althusmann indicated that “all options” are on the table to become less dependent on Russian. Reducing dependence on Russian gas has become Germany’s top priority in a matter of weeks.
The Russian central bank has decided to close the stock exchange in Moscow for this week as well. It has not been possible to trade shares on this exchange since 28 February. The market is closed to to protect domestic investors from significant losses from the War in Ukraine. It should become clear this week whether the stock market will reopen after March 18. The Russians can now trade rubles again.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.43% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 0.94% compared to previous business day.
The European Central Bank (ECB) announced yesterday that, despite high inflation in the Eurozone, the current interest rate policy will be maintained. This means that the deposit rate will remain at 0.50% negative, the policy rate at 0.0% and the penalty rate at 0.25%. However, the bond purchase programs will be reduced. The Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme will be discontinued at the end of March and the Asset Purchase Programme will be reduced to EUR 40 billion in April, EUR 30 billion in May and EUR 20 billion in June.
The number of bankruptcies in the Netherlands increased by 41 in February this year to 150, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported this morning. In 2018 and 2019, the number of monthly bankruptcies still hovered around 250, but since the peak of 338 in April 2020, this number has fallen sharply. In August 2021, the number of bankruptcies reached its lowest level since December 1990. In February 2022, of all industries, the trade sector had the highest number of bankruptcies, at 27.
Between February 26 and March 2, 227,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the United States. The number of new applications unexpectedly increased by 11,000 compared to a week earlier. Analysts had actually expected a decrease of 1,000. The total number of applications remains around the level of before the coronapandemic.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to -0.42% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 0.96% compared to previous business day.
The Member States of the European Union have agreed on more targeted sanctions in connection with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Belarus’ role in it. This was revealed in a statement by the European Commission on Wednesday. People with Belarusian nationality or residents of the country will not be allowed to transfer more than 100,000 euros to the EU, nor will they be allowed to sell or provide euro-denominated securities or banknotes to Belarusian customers. Russia is subject to new restrictions on the export of technology in the field of maritime navigation and radio communication. The restriction on loans and credit explicitly includes crypto currencies, the new sanctions make clear.
The number of job openings in the United States fell slightly in January. This was shown Wednesday by figures from the U.S. Department of Labor. In January, the number of vacancies was 11.3 million. In December there were 11.4 million. In January 2021 there were only 7.2 million vacancies.
The stocks of crude oil in the United States fell last week. This was reported on Wednesday by the energy agency EIA. In the week ending March 4, crude oil inventories decreased by 1.9 million barrels to 411.6 million. Gasoline stocks decreased by 1.4 million barrels to 244.6 million barrels. Fuel oil and diesel stocks decreased by 5.2 million barrels to 113.9 million. Refinery capacity utilisation was 89.3%, down from 87.7% a week earlier.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.44% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 0.90% compared to previous business day.
Analysts do not expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to take any major steps tomorrow to tackle high inflation. This will only be a postponement, however, as the ECB cannot avoid tightening policy once the war settles in Ukraine, analysts believe. The war in Ukraine brings additional uncertainty about economic growth and inflation.
Yesterday, nickel trading on the London Metal Exchange was suspended. As a result of the war in Ukraine, the price of the metal has increased as much as 250% in recent days. The price of a tonne of nickel even surpassed 100,000 USD yesterday, while the price was still around 20,000 USD at the beginning of the year.
The war in Ukraine causes a lot of turmoil in the commodity and currency markets yesterday. Companies in the energy sector in particular managed to record considerable profits. At the end of the day, the S&P 500 fell 0.7% to 4170.67 points, the Nasdaq lost 0.3% to 12,7985.55 points and the Dow Jones fell 0.6% to 32,631.72 points.
The 6M Euribor increased with 3 basis points to -0.45% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 11 basis points to 0.84% compared to previous business day.
The European and American stock exchanges showed a big decline yesterday. The S&P500 dropped to 4,201.08 and lost 3.0%, the Dow Jones Index reached 32,817.38 points and decreased 2.4%. The Nasdaq lost as much as 3.6% and now stands at 12,830.96. European stock markets also closed lower, but to a lesser extent than in America. The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 1.1% to 417.13 points, the German DAX declined 2.0% to 12,834.65. The French CAC 40 lost 1.3% and the British FTSE closed down just 0.4%. These stock market developments are related to the turmoil arising from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Carmignac even fears stagflation, which is a decline in the economy combined with high inflation.
Yesterday, in contrast to the stock markets, the price of oil rose sharply. Where a barrel of WTI closed with a settlement of USD 119.40, it briefly touched USD 130, which came from momentum for an import ban on Russian oil.
In Germany, retail sales in January went from a decline is December to an increase. The German statistics office Destatis reported that on a monthly basis, retail sales rose 2.0% in January, adjusted for inflation. On a year-on-year basis, the increase was even greater, where it was as much as a 10.3% increase from January last year. German factory orders rose faster than expected in January. Adjusted for seasonal effects, it rose by 1.8% on a monthly basis. This is a larger increase than expected by economists, who had counted on a 0.6% increase.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.48% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 0.73% compared to previous business day.
Capital markets will again be determined by the developments in and around Ukraine, while the market continues to pay attention to the European Central Bank as it convenes Thursday. According to Bank of America, European equities are unattractive at the moment. It will be a busy week macro economically. Monday starts the week with Chinese export figures. A day later, the United States follows with these figures. On Thursday, the focus will mainly be on the interest rate decision of the European Central Bank. Finally, on Friday, German inflation figures will be published.
China aims for economic growth of about 5.5 percent by 2022. This is remarkable considering this is the lowest growth target in 30 years. The growth target is still higher than most economists had expected and also more than the World Bank and the IMF anticipated. The Chinese government will give considerable incentives to achieve this target. Prime Minister Keqiang said he wants to work on China’s economic stability this year.
European stocks open sharply lower on Monday, as the attack on Ukraine continues, safe havens such as the dollar rises and the oil price explodes. The shooting of a Ukrainian nuclear power plant is considered a sign that Putin is not yet inclined to step back.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.49% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 0.72% compared to previous business day.
The annualized inflation rate in Turkey has risen to 54.4%. This was reported by the Turkish statistical office Turkstat yesterday. With this, the height of inflation in Turkey in the past 20 years has been reached. Inflation in Turkey has, just like many other countries, been moving at record highs for months caused by the sharp rise in energy prices. In addition, President Erdogan structurally revised down the Turkish central bank’s interest rate for 2021, which also pushed up inflation.
Between February 19 and February 26, 215,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the United States. The number of new applications fell by 18,000 from a week earlier, a larger decline than analysts had predicted. They were expecting a decline of 8,000. As a result, the total number of applications remains around the level of before the corona pandemic.
The price of oil (West Texas Intermediate) rose 21 percent this week to its highest level since 2011, but yesterday this advance appears to have been halted. On Thursday, the price for a barrel of crude oil didn’t close higher for the first time this week. This could be explained by the fact that the International Energy Agency reported that 60 million barrels will be released from their reserves and OPEC+ also reiterated its plan to increase production. According to analysts, however, the price drop is mainly due to a temporary “pause” in oil demand and oil prices are expected to continue to rise in the coming period.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.50% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 0.74% compared to previous business day.
Consumer prices in the eurozone rose sharply in February. This was shown Wednesday by preliminary figures from the European statistics office Eurostat. The inflation rate in February was 5.8%. In January it was 5.1%. Core inflation, an important measure for the ECB, was 2.7% in February compared to 2.3% in January.
The number of unemployed in Germany declined further in February. This was reported by the Federal Employment Agency on Wednesday. In February, the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed fell by 33,000, after a monthly decline of 48,000 in January. Economists had forecast a 20,000 decline. As a result, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 5.0% in February, down from 5.1% in January. A total of 2.42 million Germans were without a job in February. In January, the figure was 2.46 million.
The stocks of crude oil in the United States decreased last week. This was shown Wednesday by figures from the American energy agency EIA. In the week ending February 25, crude oil inventories decreased by 2.6 million barrels to 413.4 million. Gasoline stocks decreased by 0.5 million barrels to 246.0 million barrels. Fuel oil and diesel stocks decreased by 0.6 million barrels to 119.1 million. The refineries’ capacity utilisation rate was 87.7%, compared to 87.4% a week earlier.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.50% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 0.71% compared to previous business day.
The U.S. and European Union blocked Russia’s central bank from using its emergency reserves to protect the economy from the Western pressure campaign, the bank’s governor said this could trigger a financial crisis. The coordinated action blocks the central bank from selling dollars, euros and other foreign currencies in its reserves stockpile to stabilize the ruble.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance has sought help from investors with a ‘war bond’. The Ukrainian government has raised EUR 249m, among other things to pay the costs of the needs of the army and those of the state. In 2015, Ukraine still had to restructure its national debt to prevent bankruptcy.
The Dutch purchasing managers index of Nevi, an important indicator of the economy, ended at 60.6 in February, compared to 60.1 in January. A number above 50 indicates growth, below that, contraction. The large number of orders is pushing the index higher, with export orders reaching the largest increase in five months.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.49% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 14 basis points to 0.65% compared to previous business day.
The Australian central bank ceases bond purchases, and maintains the policy rate at 0.10%. Inflation in Australia is rising, but not as severely as in many other places in the world. Inflation is expected to be around 3.75% for the next few quarters, with fears of further rising inflation due to the war in Ukraine. The bank expects to make a change in the policy rate only once inflation is between 2% and 3% for an extended period. In doing so, the central bank indicated that rising energy prices and disruptions in supply lines are playing an important role. The Australian labor market is performing well, with the unemployment rate at 4.2%. This is the lowest measured point in fourteen years.
The economy in China grew faster than expected in February. The purchasing managers’ index came in at 50.2 in February. This is higher than the 49.9 that was expected. The index measuring activity in the services sector rose to 51.6 from 51.1 in January. China’s overall industry also grew and this index came in at 50.4 compared to 49.1 in January.
Japan’s industry, on the other hand, grew less in February than in the previous month. The industry did continue to grow, indicating an index of 52.7. In January, it was 55.4.
The price of oil rose to a settlement of over USD 101 for a barrel of Brent oil. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate also became significantly more expensive, with a settlement of USD 95.72. Because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, prices are expected to rise further in the coming period.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.49% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 9 basis points to 0.79% compared to previous business day.