India’s current account deficit widened in the third quarter as high commodity prices and a weak rupee increased the country’s trade gap, data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed on Thursday. In absolute terms, the current account deficit was USD 36.40 billion in the third quarter of 2022, its highest in more than a decade. As a percentage of GDP, it was 4.4%, its highest since the second quarter of 2013. While the current account deficit in the preceding second quarter was USD 18.2 billion, only 2.2% of GDP.
The money supply in the euro zone rose less in November, European Central Bank figures showed Thursday. The money supply, in short M3, rose 4.8% year-on-year in November, following a 5.1% plus in October. Lending to households rose 4.1% in November, down narrowly from October’s 4.2%. Lending to non-financial businesses rose 8.4%, after a plus of 8.9% a month earlier.
After an extreme drop, container prices are almost back to pre-pandemic level. The market for global container shipping has completely turned around in a short period of time. In January this year, prices were still at historically high levels, as there was hardly any shipping space available due to (online) buying frenzy during the pandemic and disruptions in the container chain. In recent months, however, a sharp drop of tens of percent points has occurred. Due to a worse performing economy and less transportation demand, rates are heading toward pre-corona pandemic levels.
The 6M Euribor increased with 5 basis points to 2.75% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 3.08% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Oil prices fell slightly last Thursday. The explanation is the rising number of COVID-19 cases in China. This diminished hopes of a recovery in fuel demand from the world’s largest importer of crude oil. Brent futures for February fell 0.3%, to USD 83.00 per barrel and U.S. crude oil also fell 0.3%, to USD $78.70 per barrel.
Vietnam’s economy grew 8.02% in 2022, the highest growth rate since 1997. Despite slowing global growth, Vietnam’s economy managed to grow hard due to strong domestic retail sales and exports. The growth rate is higher than the official growth target of 6.0% – 6.5% and significantly higher than last year’s growth rate of 2.58%.
The Russian ruble fell to its lowest point in eight months against the dollar on Thursday. The ruble fell 0.6% to an exchange rate of 1 USD for 72.60 RUB, coming in below the exchange rate of 72.68, the lowest point measured since April 28 this year.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.70% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 3.14% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
House prices in the largest urban regions of the United States fell on a monthly basis in October and rose less sharply on an annual basis than in September. This was revealed Tuesday by Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller figures. House prices in the 10 largest regions fell 0.7 percent on a monthly basis. On an annual basis, these prices rose 8.0 percent. However, that was down from 9.7 percent year-on-year in September. Home prices in the 20 largest regions rose 8.6 percent in October. That was 10.4 percent in September.
Hong Kong private home prices dropped 3.3% in November to the lowest since August 2017, official data showed on Wednesday, as its housing market is set to post the first annual drop since 2008. Prices in the Asian financial hub are weighed down by a weak economic outlook and rising mortgage costs, following a serious COVID outbreak at the beginning of the year. November’s fall in home prices came after a 2.7% drop in October. Home prices in Hong Kong have fallen 13.8% in the first 11 months of the year.
In the bond market, European government bonds continued to sell off on Tuesday. The 10-year Dutch interest rates rose to 2.81 percent, the highest level since August 2011 during the debt crisis. The 10-year yields of Spain, Italy and also Germany rose by 12 to 13 basis points to the highest levels in years.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.70% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 11 basis points to 3.17% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Consumer prices in Japan rose again in November. This was revealed Friday by the Japanese government. Annual inflation in November was 3.8 percent compared to 3.7 percent in October and 3.0 percent in September. This has caused the inflation to remain above the 2 percent which is desired by the Bank of Japan for eight months in a row.
More new single-family homes were sold in the United States in November than a month earlier. This was revealed by figures from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The number of sold new single-family homes rose 5.8 percent on a monthly basis to 640,000 units. The figure for October was revised up from 632,000 to 605,000.
The Dutch economy contracted slightly in the third quarter. This was revealed in a second calculation by the Central Bureau of Statistics of the Netherlands. Gross domestic product fell 0.2 percent compared to the second quarter. In the first calculation, published Nov. 15, the contraction was 0.2 percent as well.
The 6M Euribor increased with 5 basis points to 2.70% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 3.06% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Yesterday, Turkey’s central bank left the policy rate unchanged at 9.0%, as had been announced. In November the central bank cut interest rates by 150 basis points from 10.5% to 9.0%. However, the central bank also announced that this would be the last cut in a cycle of cuts for the time being. Turkey’s central bank targets a medium-term inflation rate of 5%. Currently, however, inflation is around 84%.
Global steel production fell in November, compared to unchanged production in October. This was revealed on Thursday by the industry body World Steel Association. In total, the 64 steel-producing countries manufactured 139.1 million tonnes of steel last month, down 2.6% year-on-year. In China, by far the largest steel manufacturer worldwide, production actually rose sharply by 7.4%. This increase was no match for other major producing countries, such as the United States and Russia, where production fell year-on-year in November.
The Swedish economy will enter a deeper, more long-lasting recession next year than previously forecast as soaring energy prices drive up inflation, hitting households and businesses, the country’s finance ministry said on Thursday. Sweden’s gross domestic product is now expected to contract by 0.7% in 2023, compared to a November forecast for a 0.4% decline, while headline inflation is predicted at 6% next year, up from 5.2% seen earlier. The country’s central bank has hiked interest rates four times this year to 2.50% to combat the spiraling inflation.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.65% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 3.03% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
US consumer confidence in the economy rose in December to its highest level since April of this year. This was revealed Wednesday by figures from The Conference Board. The consumer confidence index rose to 108.3 in December from 101.4 in November. Economists were counting on an index of 101.2. The sub-indicator for economic expectations for the next six months rose from 76.7 to 82.4. The sub-index for the current situation improved from 138.3 to 147.2.
The price of a barrel of crude oil closed higher Wednesday after the latest data from the US energy agency EIA showed that US crude oil inventories fell last week. The EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 5.9 million barrels to 418.2 million last week. The American Petroleum Institute reported late Tuesday that US crude oil inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels last week, while gasoline inventories rose by 4.5 million barrels, while distillate inventories rose by 830,000 barrels.
Existing home sales in the United States fell nearly eight percent in November. This was revealed Wednesday by figures from real estate brokerage organization NAR. On a monthly basis, sales fell 7.7 percent to 4.1 million homes. Economists had previously counted on 4.2 million sales. The median sales price rose 3.5 percent to $370,700 compared to a year earlier. For 129 months in a row, the price has been rising.
The 6M Euribor increased with 4 basis points to 2.63% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.98% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The Bank of Japan adjusted its monetary policy that could push long-term interest rates higher. The BOJ on Tuesday decided to let the yield on 10-year bonds move in a wider band of 50 basis points either side of the 0% target, against expectations of no change at the policy meeting.
The Spanish government will ask the European Union for loans worth 84 billion euros ($89.1 billion) and another 7.7 billion euros in grants as part of the COVID-19 recovery package, Economy Minister Nadia Calvino said on Tuesday. The cabinet estimates that EU grants and loans will contribute an average of 2.6 percentage points to gross domestic product annually through 2031.
Consumer confidence in the eurozone continued to improve in December. This was revealed on Tuesday by preliminary figures from the European Commission. The index, which reflects confidence, improved from -23.9 in November to -22.2 this month.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.59% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 10 basis points to 2.94% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Confidence among US homebuilders deteriorated further in December. The NAHB housing index fell for the 12th month in a row to a reading of 31 in December versus 33 in November. This was revealed Monday by data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Economists consulted in advance were expecting an index rise to 34. If the index registers above 50, home builders consider sales conditions to be positive.
The Dutch economy will grow modestly in 2023, following robust growth in 2022. This was revealed in the new Economic Developments and Outlook (EOV) of the Ducht Central Bank (De Nederlandsche Bank, DNB). DNB expects the Dutch economy to grow 4.2 percent in 2022, mainly due to the recovery in the first half of the year, after the corona recession. Since the second half of this year, the economy has been cooling. DNB expects the economy to stabilize at a modest growth rate of 0.8 percent next year, but warns for a high degree of uncertainty.
Germany’s business climate improved in December. Figures from the Ifo research institute showed on Monday that Germany’s business climate index for industry and trade rose from a revised 86.4 in November to 88.6 this month. A figure of 87.4 had been expected beforehand.
The 6M Euribor increased with 8 basis points to 2.57% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.84% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
European Union (EU) negotiators reached a political agreement on Sunday on climate legislation that would require CO2 emissions in the EU to be 55 percent lower than in 1990 and with which they aim to be climate neutral by 2050. This was reported by the European Commission on Sunday.
The currency markets will gently move towards Christmas next week after the major central banks raised their interest rates last week in line with expectations. Most central banks raised interest rates by 0.5 percentage point.
In the US, activity in both services and manufacturing contracted more sharply in December compared to the previous month. This was revealed on Friday by provisional figures from S&P Global. The purchasing managers’ index for the services sector fell from 46.2 to 44.4, the lowest level in four months. The purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing fell from 47.7 to 46.2, the lowest level in 31 months.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 2.493% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 9 basis points to 2.811% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points on Thursday as expected by markets. The bank’s governing council believes that interest rates will need to continue to rise at a steady pace to ensure that inflation returns to the 2% target. The central bank also warned of a possible contraction of the euro area economy in the current and next quarter due to the energy crisis, high uncertainty, weakening global economic activity and tighter financing conditions.
The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) stated on Thursday that the French economy is expected to contract slightly this quarter due to refinery strikes and nuclear reactor outages. Economic activity in France is expected to recover in the first half of next year. The latest GDP forecast for the fourth quarter of 2022 would result in a growth of 2.5% for the year 2022, slightly lower than the 2.7% expected by the government in its budget planning.
The Bank of England raised its key interest rate to 3.5% from 3% on Thursday, its ninth rate rise in a row. The BoE stated that it tries to speed inflation’s return to target, after price growth hit a 41-year high in October. The BoE further stated that the labour market remains tight and there has been evidence of inflationary pressures in domestic prices and wages that could indicate greater persistence. In their opinion this justifies a further forceful monetary policy response.
The 6M Euribor increased with 4 basis points to 2.52% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 12 basis points to 2.72% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
US import prices fell slightly more than expected in November. This was revealed on Wednesday by figures from the US Department of Labour. Import prices fell 0.6% month-on-month in November, following a revised 0.4% drop in October. Analysts had been counting on a 0.2% decrease for November. Export prices fell 0.3% month-on-month in November, after a revised 0.4% drop in the previous month. Earlier, a decline of 0.3% was measured. On a year-on-year basis, import and export prices were 2.7% and 6.3% higher in November.
Eurozone industry produced less in October than a month earlier. This was revealed by Eurostat figures on Wednesday. Production fell 2.0% in October compared to September. In Belgium, output was also down 2.0% and in the Netherlands 1.5%. On a year-on-year basis, production in the eurozone did rise in October, by as much as 3.4%.
Crude oil stocks in the United States rose sharply last week. This was revealed on Wednesday by figures from the US energy agency EIA. In the week ending 9 December, crude oil stocks rose by 10.2 million barrels to 424.1 million units. Gasoline stocks rose by 4.5 million barrels to 223.6 million barrels. Fuel oil and diesel stocks rose by 1.4 million barrels to 120.2 million units. Refineries’ capacity utilisation stood at 92.2 per cent. That was 95.5 per cent a week earlier.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 5 basis points to 2.48% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.60% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected for a second straight month in November amid decreases in the costs of gasoline and healthcare as well as used cars and trucks, leading to the smallest annual increase in inflation in nearly a year.
From 2026, the European Union is going to charge imports from regions where no levies are imposed on greenhouse gas emissions. This should protect EU companies from unfair competition from companies outside the country bloc. This follows the agreement reached by the European Parliament and member states on a so-called carbon border adjustment mechanism, CBAM for short. It is the world’s first carbon border tax.
Oil prices fell in early trade on Wednesday after industry data showed a surprise increase in U.S. crude inventories against analysts’ forecast of a decline of inventories, reinforcing fears about weakening demand even as supply tightens.
The 6M Euribor increased with 6 basis points to 2.53% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.64% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Industrial production in the United Kingdom was stable in October. This was revealed by figures from Britain’s official statistics office on Monday. On a monthly basis, British industry produced as much in October as in September. UK production was 0.3 percent higher in October compared to February 2020, the last month before the corona crisis broke out.
The European Central Bank (ECB) expects higher defaults, due to higher interest rates and a growing number of companies not repaying their loans. Therefore, the regulator will visit more banks in the coming year and conduct more “targeted” examinations. The ECB considers the probability of a recession real. Loans to energy-intensive companies and mortgages for residential and commercial real estate in particular will come under pressure.
Inflation in the Netherlands has dropped a bit in recent months, but this does not apply to food prices. Many products such as butter became more expensive in recent weeks. According to Statistics Netherlands, the price of food has risen an average of nearly 16% in one year. Rabobank’s own research calculates an annual average of 13% and expects that price increases to continue.
The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.47% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.63% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Next week, five central banks will announce their interest rate decisions in a period of 2 days. On Wednesday it will be the turn of the US Federal Reserve and on Thursday the Norwegian and Swiss central banks, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will follow.
Dutch exports grew at a higher rate in October than in the previous month. This appeared on Monday from figures from the Statistics Netherlands (CBS). Exports rose by 8.5 percent on an annual basis in October, after a plus of 2.9 percent in September and 1.3 percent in August. More petroleum products, machines and equipment were exported in October.
The number of bankruptcies in the Netherlands rose slightly in November, according to figures published by Statistics Netherlands (CBS). The number of bankrupt companies increased from 217 in October to 224 in November. In September there were 172 bankruptcies. The number of bankruptcies is at the highest level in more than two years, however, remains low compared to the period before the outbreak of corona.
The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.46% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 2.61% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Dutch industrial production rose 3.3% year-on-year in October, compared with a 5.2% increase in September, according to figures published by Statistics Netherlands. Economic growth is lower than in the past 18 months, CBS said on Friday.
Mexican consumer prices rose 7.8% in the year through November, slowing down from the previous month to reach its lowest level since May even as the core index remains a concern, data from national statistics agency INEGI showed on Thursday. Soaring costs have led Mexico’s central bank to push for an aggressive monetary tightening since June 2021. Despite cooling down, inflation remains well above the central bank’s target of 3% plus or minus 1 percentage point.
The S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday, snapping a five-session losing streak, as investors pushed the index higher after interpreting data showing a rise in weekly jobless claims as a sign the pace of interest rate hikes could soon slow. Wall Street’s main indexes had come under pressure in recent days, with the benchmark index shedding 3.6% since the beginning of December on expectations of a longer rate-hike cycle.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.44% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.55% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The price of WTI crude oil decreased on Wednesday, while crude oil inventories in the United States fell sharply last week. In the week ending Dec. 2, crude oil inventories fell 5.2 million barrels to 413.9 million units. Gasoline stocks rose 5.3 million barrels to 219.1 million barrels. And fuel oil and diesel stocks also rose by 6.2 million barrels to 118.8 million units.
The eurozone economy grew slightly faster than expected in the third quarter. Gross domestic product rose 0.3 percent on a quarterly basis, compared to an earlier estimate of 0.2 percent growth. In the second quarter, the economy grew by 0.8 percent.
Consumer prices in the Netherlands rose much less in November than in October. This was revealed by figures from the Central Bureau of Statistics on Thursday. Last month, the price level rose 9.9 percent year-on-year, following a 14.3 percent inflation rate in October. The inflation in September was 14.5 percent and in August it was 12.0 percent.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.44% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.53% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
The US trade deficit widened less than expected in October. This was revealed by the US Commerce Department figures on Tuesday. The deficit rose from a revised $ 74.1 billion in September to $ 78.2 billion in October. Analysts had previously forecast $ 80.0 billion. Exports fell 0.7% to $ 256.6 billion in October, while imports rose 0.6% to $ 334.8 billion.
Inflation in countries in the OECD region continued to rise in October. This was reported by the Paris-based think tank on Tuesday. Inflation stood at 10.7% year-on-year. In September, inflation was 10.5%. In 18 of the 38 OECD countries, inflation reached double-digits in October. Food prices saw a 16.1% rise from 15.3% a month earlier. This is the highest rate since May 1974. Energy prices rose 28.1% year-on-year. In September, it was 28.8%. In 13 OECD countries, energy prices rose more than 30%. Core inflation in the OECD region stood at 7.6% in October, unchanged from a month earlier.
German manufacturing output fell slightly in October. This was revealed on Wednesday by figures from Destatis, the German statistical office. Production, adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects, was 0.1% lower in October than a month earlier. In September, output was still up 1.1%. On a year-on-year basis, industrial production slowed down in October, after rising 3.1% in September.
The 6M Euribor increased with 3 basis points to 2.44% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 2.54% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Australia’s central bank decided to raise the Cash Target Rate by 25 basis points to 3.1% in its last monetary meeting of 2022. An accompanying memo indicates that this will not be the last interest rate hike as inflation is still too high. For the month of October, inflation stood at 6.9%.
Commodity trader Trafigura will supply liquefied natural gas (lng) to Germany over the next four years to reduce the European market’s dependence on Russian gas. The Swiss company has secured a $3bn loan secured by the German state specifically for this project. The loan has been arranged and underwritten by Deutsche Bank and one other unnamed bank and syndicated to more than 25 other lenders.
Analysts have become more negative about the performance of companies listed on the Amsterdam stock exchange. High inflation, materials shortages and the overall economic downturn are affecting companies’ earnings trends more than expected, market researchers say after analysing third-quarter figures. They lowered their earnings forecasts for the 25 companies in the AEX index for the 2022 financial year by 10% on average, according to an analysis of information from news agency Bloomberg.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.41% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.60% compared to previous business day.
The Financial Times reports that European Union member states have cut their gas consumption by almost a quarter. The numbers show that the European Union is successfully reducing its dependence on Russian gas. Research agency Icis shows with data that gas consumption has decreased by 24% compared to the monthly average over the past five years.
Francois Villeroy de Galhau of the French central bank expressed his wish on Sunday that the European Central Bank (ECB) should raise interest rates by another half a percentage point in December to curb inflation, in an interview with TV station LCI. The banker, also a member of the ECB, calls it desirable that the interest rate level be raised to 2% after years of very generous monetary policy. The ECB will decide on interest rates on 15 December.
The Chinese services sector contracted even more in November. This was revealed on Monday by figures from S&P Global. The Purchasing Managers Index was 48.4 in October and fell to 46.7 in November. The purchasing managers index for the Chinese manufacturing industry turned out to have risen from 49.2 in October to 49.4 in November last week, but this still points to contraction. The composite index fell from 48.3 to 47.0.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.41% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.58% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Swiss consumer price inflation is steady at 3.0% in November, which still exceeds the Swiss National Bank’s 0-2% target range, data showed on Thursday. The Swiss National Bank has already hiked rates twice this year to fight inflation. On Tuesday it was reported that the Swiss economy grew a real 0.2% in the third quarter versus the second quarter of 2022 and slowed to 0.5% year-on-year, lagging market expectations.
Greece’s unemployment rate eased to 11.6% in October from an upwardly revised 12% in September, data from statistics service ELSTAT showed on Thursday. The reading was the lowest recorded since March 2010, which was the start of Greece’s decade long economic crisis. The Greek economy is expected to grow by 1.8% next year, at a slower pace than initially expected, as soaring energy costs and higher inflation are seen hurting tourism and curbing domestic demand, the government’s 2023 final budget projected last month.
Eurozone manufacturing contracted less in November, final figures from S&P Global showed on Thursday. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 47.1 in November from 46.4 in October, the highest reading in two months. A preliminary reading reported an index of 47.3.
The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 2.41% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 12 basis points to 2.54% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
Inflation in the Netherlands has decreased substantially to 11.2% in November compared to the price level for consumers in November 2021, according to the provisional figures of Stastics Netherlands (CBS). A big difference with October, when inflation was still 16.8%. This is mainly due to the reduced costs for energy, especially for fuels.
The Dutch industry contracted further in November, according to figures from S&P Global published on Thursday. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index stood at 46.0 in November from 47.9 in October, the lowest level since June 2020. Despite this, employment rose for the twenty-fifth consecutive month, albeit the smallest increase since November 2020.
Bitcoin fell to less than $20,000 after peaking at $69,000 a year ago, but it seems only a matter of time before the cryptocurrency becomes definitively irrelevant. Ulrich Bindeil and Jürgen Schaaf of the European Central Bank (ECB) write this in a blog on Wednesday. The current stabilization is a “last gasp,” according to the central bank, and that was evident even before the bankruptcy of crypto exchange FTX pushed the price well below $16,000.
The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.44% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.66% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.
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